Good US data adds to Hope
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 26th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened as risk sentiment stepped up a notch on the back of better than expected economic data. February Durable Goods Orders rose +1.7% vs. -2% forecast. New Home Sales (FEB) rose +4.7% vs. -13.7% previously. The most interesting story was the slip by Geithner that he would consider a super Global Reserve Currency which was quickly clarified. Crude Oil closed down -$1.21 ending the New York session at $52.77 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 12 points or 0.82% whilst the Dow Jones up 89 points or 1.17%. Looking ahead, Q4 Final GDP forecast at -6.5% vs. -6.2% previously. Also released, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 650K vs. 646K.
·The Euro (EUR) tested the downside after German IFO hit new lows in March of 82.1 vs. 82.6 previously. Reported Large Central Asia bank buy orders resided at 1.3420 and propped the pair which rallied above 1.3600 after Geithner’s comments. IFO Official also pressed for a 0.5% rate cut to help the business climate improve. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3420 and a high of 1.3650 before closing the day at 1.3480. Looking ahead, April GFK index forecast at 2.5 vs. 2.6 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very contained against the USD with the USD/JPY falling slightly as the Dollar weakened but crosses found strength from equity market gains. Trade Balance for February beat expectations at +84B vs. -952B previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.93 and a high of 98.33 before closing the day around 97.60 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Retail Sales (Feb) are forecast at -4% vs. -2.4% previously.
·The Sterling (GBP) came under pressure from multiple fronts as CBI Distributive Trades slumped to -44 vs. -35 expected leading to speculation that retail sales will be poor going forward. Support from Equity markets and Geithner Comments stopped the fall but the wind has been taken out of the Pounds sails. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4518 and a high of 1.4734 before closing the day at 1.4560 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Retail Sales (Feb) forecast at -0.4% vs. 0.7%.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro testing 0.6900 before rallying back over 0.7000 as stocks in the US rallied. A pullback in Oil and the clarification of Geithner comments pushed the pair lower although the AUD remains on a strong footing. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6905 and a high of 0.7051 before closing the US session at 0.6990.
·Gold (XAU) reacted to Geithner’s comments although remained ranged bound as the markets offered little direction pre G20. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$940 before ending the New York session at USD$934 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3329 |
1.3417 |
1.3585 |
1.3678 |
1.3739 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.43 |
96.92 |
97.60 |
98.97 |
99.68 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4160 |
1.4395 |
1.4550 |
1.4778 |
1.4986 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6724 |
0.6852 |
0.6985 |
0.7094 |
0.7142 |
|
XAU/USD |
883.00 |
912.00 |
933.00 |
967.00 |
978.00 |
·Euro – 1.3585
Initial support at 1.3417 (Mar 19 low) followed by 1.3329 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3678 (Mar 24 high) at followed by 1.3739 (Mar 19 high)
·Yen – 97.60
Initial support is located at 96.92 (Mar 25 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.97 (Mar 17 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
·Pound – 1.4550
Initial support at 1.4395 (Mar 20 low) followed by 1.4160 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4778 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.4986 (Feb 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6985
Initial support at 0.6852 (Mar 20 low) followed by the 0.6742 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7092 (Mar 24 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 8 high).
·Gold – 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
