Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 26/06/2007

June 26, 2007

GBP tests $2 mark before retreating. Plenty of focus on the US housing sector with further data set for release.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –26 JUNE 2007 (00:30GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was subject to further slowing in the housing sector as Existing Home Sales for the month of May fell 0.3%, from 6.01 mio (revised higher) to 5.99 mio, relatively flat on consensus. However data showed that median home prices were at their lowest levels since June 2003. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ fell by 11.88 pts (-0.46%) whilst the Dow Jones also fell by 8.21 points (-0.06%). Crude oil rose slightly by US$0.04 a barrel to US$69.18 after falling as low as US$68.60 on news that strikes in Nigeria had ceased. Looking ahead further housing data will be released out of the U.S. as New Home Sales for the month of May is forecasted at 0.925 mio, a drop from the previous 0.981 mio. In other data Consumer Confidence for the month of June will also be released on Tuesday. Economists are expectant of further weak data with forecasts of 105.5 (Previous: 108).

  • The Euro (EUR) was range bound for much of Monday’s session as despite poor data out of US markets. The EURUSD traded with a range of a low 1.3439 and a high of 1.3474 before closing the day at 1.3466 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the EZ’s Current Account, with expectations that the figure will be released at 3.5 bln for the month of April (Previous: 5.4 bln)

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) initially recovered some of its recent losses against major currencies with some investors confident that the currency recent decline was over sought. In other news, the JPY was also supported by Sunday’s annual report from the International Bank for International Settlements, which said that there was ‘clearly something anomalous’ in the low-yielding yen’s recent slide to multiyear lows against a range of currencies. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 123.31 and a high of 123.95 before closing the day at 123.56 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling (GBP) With lack of data publish in the UK the GBP traded higher, breaking $2 for the first time since May 1st, as investors anticipate a UK rate hike in July rather than August. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a range of a low 1.9958 and a high of 2.0006 before closing the day at 1.9986 in the New York session.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated from 18 year highs (of 0.8500 levels) as investors chose to square off long positions with little follow through from poor US housing data. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a range of a low 0.8463 and a high 0.8501 before closing the day at 0.8464 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) eased ahead off key US data releases and interest rate announcement. Gold fell by US$2.30 an ounce to US$654.70.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3326 1.3371 1.3460 1.3514 1.3556
USD/JPY 122.86 123.09 123.40 124.17 125.00
GBP/USD 1.9824 1.9869 1.9990 2.0008 2.0076
AUD/USD 0.8333 0.8428 0.8460 0.8502 0.8558
XAU/USD 643.50 646.50 651.60 662.35 674.00

  • Euro 1.3460

Initial support at 1.3371 (June 21 low) followed by 1.3326 (Jun 14 former high). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3514 (Jun 7 high) followed by 1.3556 (Jun 5 reaction high)

  • Yen 123.40

Initial support is located at 123.09 (June 20 low) followed by 122.86 (Jun 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 124.17 (Jun 22 trend high) followed by 125.00 (Psychological round number)

  • Pound – 1.9990

Initial support at 1.9869 (June 20 low) followed by 1.9824 (Jun 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0008 (June 25 low) followed by 2.0076 (May 1 reaction high)

  • Australian Dollar – 0.8460

Initial support a 0.8428 (June 21 low) followed by 0.8333 (Jun 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8502 (June 22 high) followed by 0.8558 (Jan 1989 former low)

  • Gold – 651.60

Initial support at 646.50 (June 14 low) followed by 643.50 (June 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 662.35 (61.8% retracement 674.00 to 643.50 decline) followed by 674.0 (June 4 high)

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