Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 26/11/2007

Japanese market holiday exaggerate moves. Euro eyes 1.50 level. Markets move on ECB official comments.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –26 NOVEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was generally weaker in a shortened session in New York as a Japanese market holiday and thin volumes exacerbated currency moves. The USD was initially at record lows against the Euro and the Swiss Franc before pairing back most of its losses towards the end of day’s trading. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up by 34 points (+1.34%) whilst the Dow Jones also climbed by 181.84 (+1.42%). Crude oil climbed again towards the important USD$100 mark, rising by US$1.01 a barrel to US$98.30.

·The Euro (EUR) again made a record high against the US dollar but was unable to sustain newly reached levels as ECB Governing Council member Ordonez said that he saw a greater-than-expected economic slowdown in the Euro zone and that there was not enough data to dispel uncertainty about the effects of the financial market turmoil. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4775 and a high of 1.4930 before closing the day at 1.4830. ECB President Trichet and various ECB officials are scheduled to speak today.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) enjoyed a market holiday on Friday causing thin trading conditions during the Asian session. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.55 and a high of 108.50 before closing the day at 108.10.

·The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro in Friday trade. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0561 and a high of 2.0762 before closing the session at 2.0585. Looking ahead, Nationwide House Prices are due for release today.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) also tracked moves in the EUR coupled with uncertainty over the election result on the weekend. Labor won the election, ending an 11 year reign by the Liberal party. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8687 and a high of 0.8778 before closing the day at 0.8748.

·Gold (XAU) moved strongly higher as base and precious metals in general were bought up as a response to a stronger oil price. Gold finished the day up US$26.10 an ounce to US$824.70.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4825

Initial support at 1.4776 (Nov 21 low) followed by 1.4636 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4968 (Nov 23 trend high) followed by 1.5 (Psychological resistance).

·Yen – 108.30

Initial support is located at 107.56 (Nov 23 trend low) followed by 107.00 (Round number support). Initial resistance is now at 109.98 (Nov 21 high) followed by 110.58 (Nov 20 high)

·Pound – 2.0610

Initial support at 2.0519 (Nov 23 low) followed by 2.0457 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0761 (Nov 23 high) followed by 2.0846 (Nov 14 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8815

Initial support a 0.8654 (Nov 21 low) followed by 0.8606 (Sep 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8997 (Nov 19 high) followed by 0.9073 (Nov 14 high)

·Gold – 824

Initial support at 773.00 (Nov 20 low) followed by 771.50 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 845.8 (Nov 7 trend high) followed by 846.45 (November open + (October range*0.618))