US GDP fails to dent optimism
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened even as stocks continued to rise with economic data being shrugged off and equity market continuing to rise. Q4 Final GDP were forecast at -6.5% came in at -6.3% and Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 650K came in at 652K. Crude Oil closed up $1.24 ending the New York session at $54.01 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 58 points or 3.8% whilst the Dow Jones up 174 points or 2%. Looking ahead, Personal Income (Feb) forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.4%. Also released, UoM Consumer Confidence forecast at 56.6 vs. 56.3 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) tested the topside of the recent range as EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY buying supported. Consumer Confidence fell to 2.4 vs. 2.5 forecast. Pressure is mounting for the ECB to cut rates next week to join efforts of other central banks around the world. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3497 and a high of 1.3640 before closing the day at 1.3530. Looking ahead, Industrial Orders (Jan) forecast -6% vs. -5.2% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold aggressively against the resurgent USD to test 99 into the close of New York. Retail Sales (Feb) fell -5.8% and underpins how serious the downturn the economic activity in Japanis and could contribute to further Yen easing in coming months. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.61 and a high of 98.90 before closing the day around 98.85 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) had a second day of selling as UK Retail Sales fell -1.9% vs. -0.3% forecast. Of Concern to the GBP and Bank of England was the relative failure of the latest government bond auction to garner much interest. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4426 and a high of 1.4636 before closing the day at 1.4460 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q4 Final GDP forecast to remain unrevised at -1.9%. Also released, Q4 Current Account forecast -5.8Bn vs. -7.72Bn previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) reclaimed 0.7000 as improved risk sentiment allowed to Aussie to gain even as the Euro and Pound fell. Helping to sure up AUD support was positive news flow out of china and another day of gains in Oil. The Aussie rally has only been outpaced by the NZD which has packed on over 15% in the past 3 weeks. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6980 and a high of 0.7039 before closing the US session at 0.7020.
·Gold (XAU) kept inside the recent range as 930 propped while 950 contained. The narrowing range suggests a break out is close at hand with analysts are split on future direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$932 and high of USD$945 before ending the New York session at USD$934 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3329 |
1.3417 |
1.3565 |
1.3678 |
1.3739 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.43 |
96.92 |
98.45 |
98.97 |
99.68 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4160 |
1.4395 |
1.4480 |
1.4778 |
1.4986 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6724 |
0.6852 |
0.7005 |
0.7094 |
0.7142 |
|
XAU/USD |
883.00 |
912.00 |
933.00 |
967.00 |
978.00 |
·Euro – 1.3565
Initial support at 1.3417 (Mar 19 low) followed by 1.3329 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3678 (Mar 24 high) at followed by 1.3739 (Mar 19 high)
·Yen – 98.46
Initial support is located at 96.92 (Mar 25 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.97 (Mar 17 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
·Pound – 1.4480
Initial support at 1.4395 (Mar 20 low) followed by 1.4160 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4778 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.4986 (Feb 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7005
Initial support at 0.6852 (Mar 20 low) followed by the 0.6742 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7092 (Mar 24 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 8 high).
·Gold – 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
