Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 27/06/2006

June 27, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –27JUNE06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar was generally flat in the overnight session as new home sales rose in May to a 1.234 million annual rate. The market was expecting a fall to 1.15 million. The dollar did however give up some ground to the Euro after comments from the European Central Bank highlighting inflation concerns helped to support the Euro against the greenback. ECB governing council member Nout Wellink stated that Euro Zone inflation risks have risen slightly and growth maybe a bit better than expected. In other markets, the Dow Jones buoyed by large takeover deals rose by 56pts while the NASDAQ climbed 12pts. Crude oil rose by US93c a barrel to US$71.80 after an important shipping lane in the US was closed, reducing production at refineries. Looking ahead, Consumer confidence and existing home sales are due out today.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2504 to 1.2602, before closing at 1.2581 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the German IFO survey is due out today.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 116.12 to 116.53 versus the dollar, before closing at 116.26 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8164 to 1.8244, before closing at 1.8234 in the New York session.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7292 to 0.7331, before closing at 0.7319 in the New York session.

  • Gold fell by US30c to US$587.70 an ounce in calm trading in the overnight session for precious metals.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2403 1.2478 1.2595 1.2605 1.2681
USD/JPY 114.37 115.76 116.15 116.66 116.95
GBP/USD 1.7916 1.8126 1.8245 1.8315 1.8316
AUD/USD 0.7237 0.7270 0.7335 0.7424 0.7450

  • Euro 1.2595

Initial support at 1.2478 (June 23 low) followed by 1.2403 (50% retracement of the 1.1951 to 1.2980 rally). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2605 (June 26 high) followed by 1.2681(Jun 22 high).

  • Yen 116.15

Initial support is located at 115.76 (June 23 low) followed by 114.37 (Jun 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 116.66 (61.8% retracement of the 121.41 to 108.98 decline) followed by 116.95 (76.4% retracement of the 119.41 to 108.98 decline).

  • Pound – 1.8245

Initial support at 1.8126 (June 23 low) followed by 1.7916 (61.8% retracement of the 1.7230 to 1.9027 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8315 (Jun 23 reaction high) followed by 1.8316 (Jun 13 low).

  • Aussie – 0.7335

Initial support at 0.727 (April 17 low) followed by 0.7237 (Apr 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7424 (June 22 high) followed by 0.745 (June 16 high).

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