Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 27/08/2009

China Curbing Over Investment

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27th August (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strong US data failed to inspire fresh stock gains. News of China curbing investment sent commodities and risk currencies lower. New Homes sales rose 9% as expected and Durable Goods rose 4.9% vs. 3% forecast. One Dampener was core Durable goods that came in at 0.8% vs. 0.9% forecast. USD strength on the back of strong US data is new phenomenon starting to be digested by the markets. Crude Oil Closed down $0.62 at $71.43. In US share markets, S&amp P ended +0.1 points (0.01%) at 1028, NASDAQ ended +0.2 points (0.01%) at 2024 and DOW JONES ended +4 points (+0.04%) at 9543. Looking ahead, Q2 Preliminary GDP is forecast at -1.5%.

The Euro (EUR) German IFO (90.5 vs. 87.3 previously) was strong as expected and helped the Euro touch day highs at 1.4350 before sellers returned and slammed the pair lower on stalling stocks and fresh USD strength. Positive sentiment is failing to produce the desired results for the bulls who are becoming frustrated with the lack of progress. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4207 and a high of 1.4349 before closing at 1.4250. Looking ahead, German GFK forecast at 3.7 vs. 3.5 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) waxed and waned with investor sentiment but was generally strong after positive Asian stocks failed to inspire substantial fresh cross buying. USD/JPY remains attracted to the 94 Yen level and could retest last week lows at 93.40 if china stocks continue to gyrate lower. GBP/JPY was particularly heavy yesterday. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.90 and a high of 94.59 before closing the day around 94.20 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July CPI forecast at -2.2% vs. -1.7%. Also released, July Unemployment forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued the slump on the above China news breaking support at 1.6300 to test 6 week lows below 1.6200. GBP/JPY was weak and EUR/GBP tested 0.8800. The outlook is beginning to turn very bearish as momentum develops on the downside. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6160 and a high of 1.6354 before closing the day at 1.6240 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August CBI distributive trades forecast at -13 vs. -15 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced in Asia although never looked like testing 0.8400 as the market turned bearish with the release of the China investment curb story. Commodities came under pressure and pair fell as the Aussie was sold aggressively to 0.8250 supports. AUD/JPY support have been limited this week with Japanese investors waiting for the weekend’s election. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8253 and a high of 0.8388 before closing the US session at 0.8280.

Gold (XAU) kept to the now familiar range of $940 to $950 with the market tracking the fall in Oil and Fresh USD strength. Overall trading with a low of USD$940 and high of USD$950 before ending the New York session at USD$945 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4240

Initial support at 1.4201 (AUG 20 low) followed by 1.4046 (AUG 17 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4376 (Aug high) followed by 1.4621 (61.8% retrace 1.6038 -1.2330)

Yen – 93.85

Initial support is located at 93.10 (July 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.29 (August 18 high) followed by 96.73 (Aug 12 high).

Pound – 1.6230

Initial support at 1.6034 (Aug 20 low) followed by 1.5985 (Jul 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6546 (AUG 1 high) followed by 1.6719 (AUG 10 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8260

Initial support at 0.8216 (AUG 21 low) followed by the 0.8126 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8478 (Aug 14 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 high).

Gold – 945

Initial support at 930 (Aug 17 low) followed by 925 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 960 (August 13 high) followed by 971 (Aug 6 high).