Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 28/03/2008

March 28, 2008

US GDP on expectations ahead of PCE data release.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28 MARCH 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was firm against a number of majors on the back of a string positive economic data. GDP figures were confirmed at 0.6% for the fourth quarter with an upward revision of consumption to 2.3% from the previous 1.9%. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down 43 pts (-1.9%) whilst the Dow Jones was also down 120 pts (-1.0%). Crude oil rose further by US$1.68 a barrel to US$107.58 following an attack on a fuel pipeline in Southern Iraq. Looking ahead out of the U.S. the Michigan Sentiment survey for the month of March is expected to come in at 70 previous at 70.8. PCE figures for the month of February are also expected to generate plenty of interest.

·The Euro (EURO) was range bound for much of the day with data out of the US largely as expected. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5727 and a high of 1.5848 before closing the day at 1.5778 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) rose for the first time in four days against the Euro on speculation Japanese investors are selling overseas assets and bringing funds home as credit-market losses spread. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.57 and a high of 100.16 before closing the day at 99.82 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) had a sharp rally during the day with the GBPUSD trading with a low of 2.0029 and a high of 2.0192 before closing the day at 2.0038 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) trade technically, hovering around the key 92 cent levels. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9206 and a high of 0.9240 before closing the day at 0.9206 in the New York session.

·Gold (XAU) continues to drift sideways trading with a low of 940.95 and a high of 954.50

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.5408 1.5584 1.5790 1.5833 1.5904
USD/JPY 98.46 98.89 99.40 100.33 101.04
GBP/USD 1.9849 1.9927 2.0070 2.0111 2.0145
AUD/USD 0.9073 0.9122 0.9195 0.9243 0.9290
XAU/USD 912.02 934.80 946.00 952.00 954.03

·Euro – 1.5790

Initial support at 1.5584 (Mar 26 low) followed by 1.5408 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5833 (Mar 18 high) followed by 1.5904 (Mar 17 low).

·Yen – 99.40

Initial support is located at 98.89 (Mar 26 low) followed by 98.46 (Mar 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.33 (Mar 26 high) followed by 101.04 (Mar 25 high)

·Pound – 2.0070

Initial support at 1.9927 (Mar 26 low) followed by 1.9849 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0111 (Mar 26 high) followed by 2.0145 (61.8% retracement of the 2.0398 to 1.9737)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9195

Initial support a 0.9122 (Mar 26 low) followed by 0.9073 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9243 (Mar 26 high) followed by 0.9290 (61.8% retracement of the 0.9499 to 0.8953 decline)

·Gold – 946.00

Initial support at 934.80 (Mar 26 low) followed by 912.02 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 952.0 (Mar 26 high) followed by 954.03 (38.2% retracement of the 1032.50 to 905.03 decline)

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