G7 warns market on YEN volatility
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28th October 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to make strong gains as equity markets continued to be under pressure and safe haven flows supported the USD. US stocks recovered but fell steeply into the close. US data was better than expected with New Home Sales rising 2.7% to 464K. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 46 points (2.97%) and the Dow Jones was down 200 points (-2.42%). Crude Oil closed down $0.93 ending the New York session at $63.22 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Consumer Confidence is seen at 52 vs. 59.8 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) after starting the day bouncing the Euro turned south again with Asian stocks and kept on falling before putting in New Year lows. October German IFO fell to 90.2 vs. 91 forecast. The Euro was able to recover and close above the key 1.2500 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2336 and a high of 1.2624 before closing the day at 1.2520 in the New York session. Looking ahead, GFK Index expected at 1.5 in September.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) Bounce off highs as the G7 issued a statement warning against extreme volatility in the Yen and that coordinated action is ready to be taken. The market pared some of its USD/JPY shorts on the news but as the Nikkei piled on losses the market sent the Yen soaring higher especially against the GBP. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.91 and a high of 94.23 before closing the day around 93.80 in the New York session. UPDATE SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES -0.4%
·The Sterling (GBP) had another volatile day falling from Fridays close and retesting lows on slumping stocks around the world. As markets recovered the GBP bounced towards 1.57 before settling at 1.56. EUR/GBP found resistance at 0.8125. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5280 and a high of 1.5877 before closing the day at 1.5645 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October CBI sales are seen -35 vs. -27 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was relatively buoyant in the morning bouncing off lows until the Nikkei broke lower in the afternoon causing a spike in Risk aversion and undermining any recovery seen in the Aussie. Extreme weakness at the end of the US session brought 0.6000 downside target back into the frame and required the RBA to intervene for the 3rd time in 3 days adding liquidity and stabilizing for the time being. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6010 and a high of 0.6245 before closing the US session at 0.6080.
·Gold (XAU) tracked Oil and USD strength initially falling back towards $700. The Bounce in US stocks saw a significant reversal and Gold traced the recovery up to resistance at $750. Overall trading with a low of USD$707 and high of USD$747 before ending the New York session at USD$731 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2286 |
1.2335 |
1.2460 |
1.2686 |
1.3078 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.92 |
91.91 |
92.75 |
94.48 |
97.98 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5164 |
1.5269 |
1.5535 |
1.5923 |
1.6346 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.5882 |
0.5929 |
0.6015 |
0.6250 |
0.6331 |
|
XAU/USD |
682.50 |
707.50 |
729.00 |
747.24 |
750.00 |
·Euro – 1.2460
Initial support at 1.2335 (Oct 24 low) followed by 1.2286 (April 19 2006 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2686 (Oct 22 high) at followed by 1.3078 (Oct 21 high).
·Yen – 92.75
Initial support is located at 91.93 (Oct 27 low) followed by 90.92 (Oct 24 level). Initial resistance is now at 94.48 (Oct 27 high) followed by 97.98 (Oct 24 high).
·Pound – 1.5535
Initial support at 1.5267 (Oct 24 low) followed by 1.5164 (Aug 2002 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5923 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.6346 (Oct 24 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6015
Initial support at 0.5929 (Apr 07 2003 low) followed by the 0.5882 (Mar 18 2003 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6026 (Oct 27 low) followed by 0.625 (Oct 27 high).
·Gold – 729
Initial support at 707.5 (Oct 27 low) followed by 682.5 (Oct 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 747 (Oct 24 high) followed by 750 (Key Level).
