Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 30/05/2006

May 30, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –30MAY06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar was very quiet against the major currencies in the overnight session as both the US and the UK were on holidays due to the Memorial Day and the Bank holidays respectively. In other markets, the NYSE and NASDAQ were both closed as a result of the Memorial Day holiday. Crude oil was steady at USD$71.37 a barrel. Looking ahead, the US Conference Board consumer confidence is due out later today.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2737 to 1.2766, before closing at 1.2744 in the New York session. On the data front, the German forward-looking GfK consumer confidence report was positive, rising to 5.8% for June. The Money Supply/Public Sector Credit Growth is due out today.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 112.20 to 112.66 versus the dollar, before closing at 112.39 in the New York session. On the data front, the unemployment rate for April came in as expected, that is, 4.1%. Household spending was worse than the expected rate of -1.5%, coming in at -2.0%.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8570 to 1.8641, before closing at 1.8590 in the New York session. On the data front, Net mortgage lending/mortgage approvals and GfK consumer confidence numbers are out tomorrow.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7580 to 0.7595, before closing at 0.7590 in the New York session. On the data front, retail sales impressed rising to 1.4% from an estimated 0.3%.

  • Gold moved lower to US$647.77 an ounce, a drop of $3.23.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2685 1.2730 1.2745 1.2894 1.2920
USD/JPY 110.96 111.47 112.65 112.97 114.18
GBP/USD 1.8348 1.8530 1.8585 1.8776 1.8889
AUD/USD 0.7466 0.7491 0.7585 0.7622 0.7676

  • Euro 1.2745

Initial support at 1.2730 (May 24 low) followed by 1.2685 (May 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2894 (May 24 high) followed by 1.292 (May 17 corrective high).

  • Yen 112.65

Initial support is located at 111.47 (May 26 low) followed by 110.96 (May 23 corrective low 61.8% retracement of the 108.93 to 113.03). Initial resistance is now at 112.97 (May 24 high) followed by 114.18 (May 4 high &amp 50% ret 119.41 to 108.98).

  • Pound – 1.8585

Initial support at 1.8530 (May 26 low) followed by 1.8348 (38.2% retracement of the 1.7250 to 1.9027 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8776 (May 26 high) followed by 1.8889 (May 22 high).

  • Aussie – 0.7585

Initial support at 0.7491 (May 24 low) followed by 0.7466 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7622 (May 26 high) followed by 0.7676 (May 18 high).

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