Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 30/07/2009

Shanghai Down, Oil Down More

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 30th July (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained strength from multiple sources building on yesterday’s strength to push significantly higher against a broad range of currencies. China stocks fell 5% on bank loan concerns and crude slumped nearly 6% on weak inventory numbers from the US overnight. Adding to the rally was fresh safe haven flows on the back of a weak US Treasury Auction and lower sluggish US stocks. June Durable Goods Orders -2.5% vs. -0.6% forecast. Crude Oil ended down $3.88 higher to close at $63.35. In US share markets, S&amp P ended -4.47 points (-0.46%) at 975, NASDAQ ended +7 points (-0.39%) at 1967 and DOW JONES ended -26 points (-0.29%) at 9070. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless claims forecast at 570k vs. 554k previously.

The Euro (EUR) was a large mover with a relief rally in Asia being sold for the rest of the day for a test of 1.4000 which held firm. The fall from 1.4300 has been brutal for longs and could induce more selling on rallies as longs try to bailout. Investor sentiment was key in getting the Euro higher so if stocks fall then that support may slip. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4006 and a high of 1.4197 before closing at 1.4035. looking ahead, German July Unemployment is forecast to rise 45K vs. 31K previously and the Unemployment rates is Expected to tick higher to 8.4% vs. 8.35 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) cross weakness and risk aversion pushed the USD/JPY down to support at 94 before bouncing very hard on USD strength and resilient US stocks. EUR/JPY slipped but found support with USD/JPY strength in an counter intuitive day of trading. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.00 and a high of 95.39 before closing the day around 95.10 in the New York session. UPDATE June Industrial Output at 2.4% meets expectations.

The Sterling (GBP) was surprisingly stable throughout the commodity storm with heavy EUR/GBP selling and GBP/AUD buying helping keep the major stable at lows. Mortgage Approvals were at forecasts of 48k in June. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6338 and a high of 1.6471 before closing the day at 1.6380 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Nationwide House Prices are forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.9% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) shunted lower on the China share crash at the end of the Asian session before stabilizing and shrugging off a slide in Commodities to show surprising resilience. The RBA stance will be revealed after the RBA meeting next Tuesday and could add to Governor Stevens hawkish Speech on Tuesday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8124 and a high of 0.8281 before closing the US session at 0.8160. UPDATE BUILDING PERMITS in JUNE +9.3% vs. 6% forecast.

Gold (XAU) fell tracking Oil lower to test support under $930 before finishing at the level. Overall trading with a low of USD$925 and high of USD$941 before ending the New York session at USD$930 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4050

Initial support at 1.4008 (Jul 29 low) followed by 1.3833 (Jul 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4338 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.4719 (Dec 18 high)

Yen – 95.10

Initial support is located at 93.10 (Jul 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.46 (Jul 7 high) followed by 96.24 (July 6 high).

Pound – 1.6385

Initial support at 1.6311 (July 22 low) followed by 1.6266 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6586 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8175

Initial support at 0.8090 (July 15 low) followed by the 0.7925 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8378 (Sept 26 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 low).

Gold – 930

Initial support at 918 (Jul 14 low) followed by 905 (July 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (June 10 high) followed by 990 (Jun 3 high).