CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 30th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk was put back in the market after better than expected US GDP and strong words of support from Fed Chief Bernanke at the Jackson Hole. Q2 GDP was revised lower to 1.6% vs. 2.4% initially released but was better than the 1.4% q/q expected. Fed Chief Bernanke reopened the door on additional monetary easing if the US economy was to further deteriorate. In US stocks, DJIA +164points closing at 10150, S& P +17 points closing at 1064 and NASDAQ +34 points closing at 2153. Looking ahead, July Personal Spending is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.0% previously.
The Euro (EUR) was well supported on USD weakness and comments from the ECB’s Weber that Europe was on the verge of a self-sustaining recovery. Bigger moves where seen through the EUR/JPY which rallied near 2 Yen. August German CPI fell 1.0% vs. 1.2% previously y/y. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2677 and a high of 1.2778 before closing at 1.2738. Looking ahead, August Sentiment forecast at 101.7 vs. 101.3.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY started moving higher in Asia on talk that the PM Kan would be holding a special press conference on the Yen strength. July Unemployment Rate is forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.3% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 84.28 and a high of 85.49 before closing the day around 85.33 in the New York session. UPDATE SPECIAL BOJ MEETING TODAY.
The Sterling (GBP) Q2 GDP was upgraded to 1.2% vs. 1.1% initially released. GBP/USD was sold however at the start of the US session on reported comments from a UK opposition politician UK economy was about to be ‘hit from a hurricane’. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5445 and a high of 1.5539 before closing the day at 1.5517 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged on US stocks and AUD/JPY buying pushing the Aussie back to 0.9000 and Y77. Sharp rallies in Oil and a feeling the bottom was in place from recent selling supported the move higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8846 and a high of 0.8998 before closing the US session at 0.8892.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was contained as USD weakness was met by reduced demand for the safe haven metal.Overall trading with a low of USD$1232 and high of USD $1242 before ending the New York session at USD$1238 an ounce. Oil surged back to the $75 a barrel level as shorts covered. WTI Oil Closed +$2.30 at $75.20 a barrel.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2152 |
1.2434 |
1.2750 |
1.2933 |
1.3000 |
|
USD/JPY |
81.85 |
83.60 |
85.80 |
86.38 |
88.12 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5125 |
1.5324 |
1.5545 |
1.5713 |
1.5999 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8634 |
0.8771 |
0.9015 |
0.9080 |
0.9222 |
|
XAU/USD |
1190.00 |
1210 |
1234 |
1247 |
1265.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75.00 |
75.40 |
76.00 |
78.00 |
Euro – 1.2750
Initial support at 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334) followed by 1.2152 (June 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 85.80
Initial support is located at 83.60 (August 24 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.38 (August 13 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5545
Initial support at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5713 (Aug 12 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9015
Initial support at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) followed by the 0.8634 (July 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9080 (August 17 high) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).
Gold – 1234
Initial support at 1210 (Aug 13 low) followed by 1190 (Aug 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 1247 (June 30 high) followed by 1265 (June 21 high).
Oil – 75.40
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 76.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Resistance).
