Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 31/10/2008

US GDP beats estimates, Recovery Continues

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 31st October 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) backing up from a rate cut the markets breathed a collective sigh of relief when advanced Q3 GDP came in at -0.3% vs. -0.5%. After being sold heavily during the day the USD was able to retrace some of those losses after the better numbers. Weekly Jobless Claims came in at expectations of 479K. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 41.31 points (2.49%) and the Dow Jones was up 189 points (2.11%). Crude Oil closed down $1.54 ending the New York session at $65.96 per barrel. Looking ahead, September Personal Income is expected at 0.1% vs. 0.5% previously. Also today Fed Chief Bernanke speaks about Mortgage Finance.

·The Euro (EUR) another extremely wide range trading day with the upside tested after 1.3000 broke and quickly surged to 1.33. Strong US data led the Euro back down under the key 1.30 level and closed on a weak footing. German Unemployment change was better than expected at -26K vs. -10K expected. In spite of the slowing global economy, German Unemployment is at 16 year lows. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2807 and a high of 1.3297 before closing the day at 1.2860 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September German Retail sales are seen at -1% vs. +1.9% previously. Also released October preliminary CPI expected at 3.2% Y/Y vs. 3.6%.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold aggressively on the crosses as the Nikkei surged. USD/JPY was relatively unchanged though as USD weakness capped gains into the 99 level littered with exporter orders. Most crosses eased back as their respective majors gave up gains. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.41 and a high of 99.14 before closing the day around 98.50 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank of Japan meets to discuss interest rates and markets are timidly expecting a cut of 0.25%.

·The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro surging past resistance at 1.65 and 1.66 before settling back on strong US data. UK Nationwide House Prices showed a 14.6% decline Y/Y in October. Analysts are now starting to predict a 1% rate cut from the next BoE meeting to aggressively attack the crisis. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.6215 and a high of 1.6670 before closing the day at 1.6370 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very well supported during the day as markets cautiously reentered into riskier trades. The AUD has been severely beaten down during the financial crisis and so any recovery would benefit the high yielding currency the most. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6619 and a high of 0.6891 before closing the US session at 0.6720.

·Gold (XAU) pared recent gains as the USD strengthened. Also weighing on the precious metal is the deteriorating inflation outlook. Overall trading with a low of USD$735.40 and high of USD$776.30 before ending the New York session at USD$738 an ounce.

·Euro – 1.2865

Initial support at 1.2806 (Oct 30 low) followed by 1.2626 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3292 (Oct 30 high) at followed by 1.3358 (Oct 21 high).

·Yen – 98.65

Initial support is located at 97.23 (Oct 30 low) followed by 96.08 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.70 (Oct 29 high) followed by 100.57 (Oct 22 high).

·Pound – 1.6365

Initial support at 1.6213 (Oct 30 low) followed by 1.6000 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6672 (Oct 30 high) followed by 1.6728 (Oct 22 High).

·Australian Dollar – 0.6735

Initial support at 0.6619 (Oct 30 low) followed by the 0.6339 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7065 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.6239 (Oct 14 high).

·Gold – 738

Initial support at 733 (Oct 30 low) followed by 725 (Oct 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 803 (Oct 21 high) followed by 814.5 (Oct 17 Level).