US Jobs Losses stir Bailout Rally
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened across the board after dismal US Jobs data in January. Non Farm Payrolls jumped to -598K vs. -530K. The Unemployment Rate Jumped to a 16 year high of 7.6% vs. 7.2% previously. Stock markets rallied around the world on speculation the economic data would force the hand of government in pushing through a stimulus bill. Crude Oil closed down -$1.00 ending the New York session at $40.17 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones gained 217 points or 2.70% and the NASDAQ gained 45 points or 2.94%. Looking ahead, focus on any US Senate vote on the 2nd stimulus package.
·The Euro (EUR) shrugged off weak economic data to capitalize on the equity rally and weak USD. December German Industrial Production dropped -4.6% vs. -2.5% forecast. Large EUR/JPY buying saw the pair rally 3% to 119 Yen. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2748 and a high of 1.2993 before closing the day at 1.2945. Looking ahead, December Trade Balance is seen at 9.9Bn vs. 10.7Bn. February Sentix Index is forecast -30 vs. -34.4 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) although relatively unchanged against the USD, crosses were very buoyant as an increase in risk appetite saw the Yen sold quite aggressively. With US stocks up nearly 3% high yielding pairs such as the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY performed very well. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.74 and a high of 92.21 before closing the day around 92.09 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Current Account is forecast at -78 vs. -65.9 while Machine Orders are forecast at -8.8% vs. -16.2% previously.
·The Sterling (GBP) continued the recent rally as USD weakness enticed another leg higher. Speculation is mounting that the rate cutting cycle is nearing an end in the UK. December Industrial Production dropped -2.2% vs. -1.3% expected. January PPI jumped on the back of the weak exchange rate causing imports to become more expensive. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4591 and a high of 1.4844 before closing the day at 1.4800 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) buoyant stocks and commodities led the resistance being broken on the topside and a quick run up to the key 0.6800 level. AUD/JPY broke above 60 and quickly moved to 62 as risk appetite improved. The RBA Monetary statement released earlier in the day downgraded the economic outlook as expected. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6476 and a high of 0.6802 before closing the US session at 0.6758.
·Gold (XAU) held above the key $900 level but couldn’t hold on to the post NonFarm Payroll gains as the subsequent stock rally pared demand. Overall trading with a low of USD$904 and high of USD$920 before ending the New York session at USD$911 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2707 |
1.2748 |
1.2950 |
1.3071 |
1.3179 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.21 |
90.74 |
91.80 |
92.25 |
92.87 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4324 |
1.4590 |
1.4780 |
1.4844 |
1.4908 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6403 |
0.6476 |
0.6740 |
0.6803 |
0.6844 |
|
XAU/USD |
874.00 |
889.00 |
911.00 |
930.00 |
949.00 |
·Euro – 1.2950
Initial support at 1.2748 (Feb 6 low) followed by 1.2707 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3070 (Feb 4 high) at followed by 1.3179 (Jan 29 high)
·Yen – 91.80
Initial support is located at 90.74 (Feb 6 low) followed by 89.21 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.25 (Feb 5 high) followed by 92.87 (0.764 of 94.64-87.13).
·Pound – 1.4780
Initial support at 1.4590 (Feb 6 low) followed by 1.4324 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4844 (Feb 6 high) followed by 1.4908 (Jan 19 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6740
Initial support at 0.6476 (Feb 6 low) followed by the 0.6403 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6803 (Feb 6 high) followed by 0.6844 (Jan 19 high).
·Gold – 911
Initial support at 889 (Feb 3 low) followed by 874 (Jan 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 930 (Oct 10 reaction high) followed by 949 (July 23 low).
