Daily Outlook Monday 6th July 2015
Another Monday, another GAP as Greeks sent a message to EU officials with a no VOTE representing 61.8% of total voters. Financial markets in ASIA are hit hard with Nikkei down 1.86%, and Hang Seng 4.24%. In Europe DAX has just opened again with a massive gap down of 2%. Overall USD is in demanded for its relative safety, and because there is not really much of an attractive alternative currency right now. Even GOLD who was expected to rebound strongly after the NO vote, is trading lower, influenced highly by the USD dominance. Same picture can be seen in OIL which is trading under $55 for the first time since March.
Deutsche Bank now predicts that the most probable scenario would be an EXIT of Greece from the Euro but that it would remain in the European Union. As this is uncharted territory for all, meaning that an event like this has never happened before, this is a decision that has to be carefully thought of. As a result, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are meeting today in Paris to discuss Greece. ECB will also hold a conference call today on what to do with Greek lenders. At this point, it’s expected that ECB will maintain the emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks for the time being.
For all those interested to see how it all began and the risks with a Eurozone Breakup, please watch this video, courtesy of Bloomberg TV. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8xAXJx9WJ8
For today, there is news in the afternoon (14:00) GMT from the US, however as you can imagine, Greece headlines will once again dominate the market.
Trading Quote of the Day: “OXI OXI OXI ” (meaning NO NO NO from the Greek People)
OIL
Pivot: 56.8
Likely scenario: Short positions below 56.8 with targets @ 54.4 & 53.7 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 56.8 look for further upside with 57.95 & 58.4 as targets.
Comment: As long as 56.8 is resistance, likely decline to 54.4.
DAX
Pivot: 11130
Likely scenario: Short positions below 11130 with targets @ 10640 & 10535 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 11130 look for further upside with 11285 & 11380 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further decline.