Daily Outlook Tuesday 14th July 2015
Mixed emotions manifested in the markets after Greek PM Tsipras agreed to Eurogroup demands, with the deal to be approved by the Greek Parliament.
Equity markets were optimistic but FX markets were less convinced with US dollar gaining around 1% since the deal announcement.
US equities market is heading into quarterly earnings season this week. You can trade these through US 500, US Tech and US 30:
- US 500 represent the S&P 500 index, the 500 largest US companies based on market capitalisation
- US Tech represent NASDAQ 100 index, includes Apple, Google, Facebook (FB hit all time high yesterday with 250 billion market capitalisation, same as Greece’s GDP)
- US 30 represent the Dow Jones Industrial Index, includes Goldman Sachs weighing 7.8% of index, releasing their earnings this Thursday
The market could fade from Greece’s news flow and focus back to economic data and US rate hike expectation. This week should be fairly interesting as we will be getting the Euro ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers today at 09:00GMT, US Retail Sales at 12:30GMT, China GDP and Industrial Production tomorrow 02:00GMT, Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy decision tomorrow, ECB’s Monetary Policy decision on Thursday.
Trading Quote of the Day: “One reason so few of us achieve what we truly want is that we never direct our focus; we never concentrate our power. Most people dabble their way through life, never deciding to master anything in particular.” – Tony Robbins
Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support
DAX
Pivot: 11650
Likely scenario: Short positions below 11650 with targets @ 11250 & 11150 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 11650 look for further upside with 11800 & 12000 as targets.
Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 11650.
OIL
Pivot: 52.9
Likely scenario: Short positions below 52.9 with targets @ 51.25 & 50.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 52.9 look for further upside with 53.85 & 54.7 as targets.
Comment: As long as 52.9 is resistance, likely decline to 51.25.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9455
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9455 with targets @ 0.9545 & 0.96 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9455 look for further downside with 0.9425 & 0.9365 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.269
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.269 with targets @ 1.2785 & 1.283 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.269 look for further downside with 1.265 & 1.261 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.