Today’s main focus will be the FOMC meeting minutes for April. The minutes are most likely to reveal that the FED members are divided over the need for a rate hike and give some indication on the probability of a US rate hike in June or July. Besides this, crude oil inventories will stir some more volatility in OIL and BRT.
- Stocks: It was a bad day for stocks globally yesterday after speculation that the FED could raise interest rates, sooner than the market expects. This newest speculation is based on the fact that consumer prices jumped at the fastest pace in more than 3 years, largely due to higher gas prices. SP500 fell -0.94% while DJ -1.02%. Higher interest rates are widely viewed as a negative for stocks because they would increase borrowing costs for U.S. companies, possibly suppressing corporate spending and growth. Wall Street has mostly risen during a protracted period of ultralow rates.
- Currencies: Rate hike expectations helped boost the USD which hit a 3 week high versus the EUR today at 1.1280. Dollar index is back at 94.75 at the time of writing and is heading back to last week’s high at 94.84. GBPUSD while initially rallied to 1.4525, dropped all the way to 1.4430 after weak CPI data. USDJPY failed to break above 109.65 yesterday and fell back below 109.00 in the early Asian session. However, it ran into good demand around 108.80 and bounced from there, reaching 109.40 later in the session.
OIL and GOLD: OIL prices remain elevated on concerns that supply disruptions and output cuts will continue. Both OIL and BRT remained near their 2016 highs of $49.75 and $48.76 per barrel, respectively, hit during intra-day trading the previous day. GOLD has not had a major breakthrough despite the volatility in stocks and OIL. The range of $1287 and $1265 still remains intact, with a new catalyst waiting so as to set direction
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