The ADP employment report was just released showing the US economy added 185k jobs versus 215k expected. This erased the gains that USD managed to make during the Asian and early European Sessions. Employment is the most crucial factor the FED takes into consideration when deciding to raise interest rates or not. A weak reading, raises speculation that NFP on Friday will also be weak, hence a rate hike might not be suitable. However, FED’s Lockhart stated last night that a September rate hike is almost certain so the possibility that traders will buy USD regardless of bad data is still high.
In currencies, EURUSD rebounded from 1.0850 support to over 1.0900 after the ADP release. GBPUSD is close to the day’s highs at 1.5650 from 1.5530 low. USDCAD is close to its 11 year high of 1.3213. GOLD rebounded to 1091 from 1085 while oil still trades at $46 per barrel.
European indices are marching higher today as the combination of positive company earnings reports and some robust China data helped eased concerns over a global slowdown.
Trading Quote of the Day: “Fighting yourself is like robbing your own bank“
Currency Updates:
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.0895
likely scenario: Short positions below 1.0895 with targets @ 1.0835 & 1.081 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.0895 look for further upside with 1.093 & 1.0965 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
USDJPY
Pivot: 124.1
Likely scenario: Long positions above 124.1 with targets @ 124.6 & 124.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 124.1 look for further downside with 123.8 & 123.5 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.556
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.556 with targets @ 1.568 & 1.571 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.556 look for further downside with 1.5525 & 1.55 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7405
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7405 with targets @ 0.733 & 0.73 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7405 look for further upside with 0.743 & 0.746 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
GOLD
Pivot: 1097.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1097.5 with targets @ 1080 & 1073 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1097.5 look for further upside with 1105 & 1115 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1097.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1080.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3145
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.3145 with targets @ 1.321 & 1.326 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3145 look for further downside with 1.3105 & 1.305 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9745
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9745 with targets @ 0.981 & 0.9845 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9745 look for further downside with 0.9715 & 0.9665 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 46.55
Likely scenario: Short positions below 46.55 with targets @ 45 & 44 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 46.55 look for further upside with 47.4 & 48.65 as targets.
Comment: As long as 46.55 is resistance, likely decline to 45.
Pivot: 11440
Likely scenario: Long positions above 11440 with targets @ 11720 & 11780 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 11440 look for further downside with 11380 & 11250 as targets.
Comment: The RSI has just broken down its overbought area (70%).
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