Bullet Report – Deja-vous of 2007 stock market meltdown

August 21, 2015

Too many headlines and things going on in the global markets so here are the headlines and their implications for the meltdown of the USD and stock indices yesterday and overnight in Asia:

•        Greek PM Tsipras resigns, paving the way for Greek snap elections.

•        China August manufacturing activity drops to 6.5 year low causing demand for Safe haven assets such as GOLD which surged to $1168 from $1113 two days ago. 

•        Stocks and oil slump as fears of a China-led deceleration in global growth gripped markets. DAX dropped to lowest point since January. US stocks are also at lowest point since 6 months with Dow Jones falling over 350 points 

•        North Korea troops on war alert, causing demand for safe haven (JPY and Gold)

A very volatile Asian session, with stocks extending selloff while gold and safe haven JPY surged to new highs. AUDUSD came also under renewed pressure due to the Chinese manufacturing data. Going into the EU session, we expect the EU PMI numbers to be released but the impact will likely be limited and focus should remain on price action and technical levels. 

Trading Quote of the Day: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria” John Templeton

Currency Updates:

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.119

Likely scenarios: Long positions above 1.119 with targets @ 1.131 & 1.137 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.119 look for further downside with 1.115 & 1.11 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.65

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 123.65 with targets @ 122.75 & 122.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 123.65 look for further upside with 124 & 124.2 as targets.

Comment: The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.572

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 1.572 with targets @ 1.563 & 1.56 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.572 look for further upside with 1.577 & 1.5805 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.572 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.563 remains high.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.734

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 0.734 with targets @ 0.728 & 0.7255 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.734 look for further upside with 0.736 & 0.739 as targets.

Comment: As long as 0.734 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

GOLD

Pivot: 1148

Likely scenarios: Long positions above 1148 with targets @ 1173 & 1178 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1148 look for further downside with 1142 & 1132 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is well directed.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.313

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 1.313 with targets @ 1.3055 & 1.302 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.313 look for further upside with 1.3175 & 1.3215 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.313 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.963

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 0.963 with targets @ 0.954 & 0.951 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.963 look for further upside with 0.967 & 0.9725 as targets.

Comment: A break below 0.954 would trigger a drop towards 0.951.

OIL

Pivot: 41.8

Likely scenarios: Short positions below 41.8 with targets @ 40.4 & 39.95 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 41.8 look for further upside with 42.6 & 43.2 as targets.

Comment: As long as 41.8 is resistance, likely decline to 40.4.

DAX
Pivot: 10650
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10650 with targets @ 10000 & 9890 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10650 look for further upside with 10910 & 11090 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

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