The USD is slowly recovering from its slide last week, following the news that china was devaluing its currency. Although the probability of the FED increasing rates in September wasn’t helped by the mixed data on Friday, it seems that optimism has returned in favor of this scenario. EURUSD would now need to break 1.1080 and 1.1045 key support levels in order to favor a further downside. The market now awaits EZ trade figures in what is expected to be a very quiet Monday due to the lack of further news.
Last week, the main theme was the devaluation of the CNY due to the diminishing growth of the export sector. AUD and NZD were among the weakest currencies of the week due to its close trading relationship with China. OIL made 6.5 year lows at $41.35 while EURUSD was resilient and despite USD strength climbed to 1.1215 but as mentioned is now lower, and will need to clearly break 1.1080.
Trading Quote of the Day: “Greed, for a lack of a better word is good” Gordon Gekko
Currency Updates:
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.114
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.114 with targets @ 1.103 & 1.098 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.114 look for further upside with 1.119 & 1.1215 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.
USDJPY
Pivot: 124.6
Likely scenario: Short positions below 124.6 with targets @ 124 & 123.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 124.6 look for further upside with 125 & 125.3 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 124.6 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 124 remains high.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5595
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.5595 with targets @ 1.5675 & 1.571 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5595 look for further downside with 1.557 & 1.554 as targets.
Comment: Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.732
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.732 with targets @ 0.741 & 0.744 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.732 look for further downside with 0.727 & 0.7215 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
GOLD
Pivot: 1112
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1112 with targets @ 1121 & 1127 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1112 look for further downside with 1102 & 1093.7 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 1112 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3055
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.3055 with targets @ 1.3145 & 1.318 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3055 look for further downside with 1.301 & 1.2985 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.98
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.98 with targets @ 0.972 & 0.967 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.98 look for further upside with 0.986 & 0.9905 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.98 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.972 remains high.
OIL
Pivot: 43
Likely scenario: Short positions below 43 with targets @ 41.33 & 40.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 43 look for further upside with 43.85 & 44.4 as targets.
Comment: As long as 43 is resistance, likely decline to 41.33.
DAX
Pivot: 10880
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10880 with targets @ 11205 & 11310 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10880 look for further downside with 10800 & 10650 as targets.
Comment: Intraday technical indicators are mixed.
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