Daily outlook – 11th February 2011 (00:30GMT)

February 11, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) an impressive drop in weekly jobless claims to 3 year lows at 383k vs. 419k previously inspired a dollar rally throughout the markets. Stock markets also took a breather and this added to the USD buybacks in most major FX pairs. &nbsp In US stocks, DJIA -10 points closing at 12229, S&amp P +1 points closing at 1321 and NASDAQ +1 points closing at 2791. Looking ahead, UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast at 75 vs. 74.2 previously.

The Euro (EUR) fell a full cent due to dollar strength as the rally this week retraced to under 1.3600. EUR/JPY was very well supported from the move higher in USD/JPY and could break higher in coming session if US data continues to improve. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3576 and a high of 1.3730 before closing the day around 1.3600 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German January CPI is forecast at -0.5%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) responded sharply to the US jobless Claims data breaking back above Y83 in a potentially important technical move higher. The market has been in a Y83-82 range for months and could be poised for a breakout in coming sessions. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.36 and a high of 83.41 before closing the day around 83.35 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) ended up on the day after the MPC held rates at 0.5% as expected but the market focused on analysts calls for rate hikes earlier than expected. GBP/JPY pushed higher and EUR/GBP pulled back to 0.8450 support. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6010 and a high of 1.6140 before closing the day at 1.6100 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January PPI is forecast at 1.2% vs. 3.4% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hit by a wave of negative sentiment which combined with a strong Dollar to push the Aussie down for a test of parity. January Employment Change was +24k vs. +15k forecast but inside this number the number of fulltime workers actually fell -8k. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0000 and a high of 1.0131 before closing the day at 1.0010 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was well supported on dips to $1350 to finish roughly unchanged. Overall trading with a low of USD$1350 and high of USD $1366 before ending the New York session at USD$1364 an ounce. Finished slightly higher on middle eastern issues. WTI Oil Closed +$0.50 at $87.52 a barrel.

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