Daily Outlook 11th October 2010

October 11, 2010

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) plenty of focus surrounding the disappointing September release of Non&amp ndash Farm Payrolls, which was released at -95K job loss, worse off than the forecasted rise of 1K jobs. Risk aversion played its part causing a rally in the USD before pairing much of its gains later on the session. Unemployment remained steady 9.6% from its previous. In other news the IMF has failed to find a solution to currency imbalances over the weekend, causing a volatile start to the week in Asia. In US share markets, the Dow Jones rose by 0.53%, the NASDAQ was higher by 18.24 points (0.77%) and the S&amp P rose 0.72%. Optimism that job losses could have been was the major cause for a rebound in wall street.

The Euro (EUR) found selling pressure for the second successive trading day within range of the magical 1.4000 mark. Trading on the Euro was whippy for much of the North American session, with the single currency failing to take a direction shortly after the lackluster payrolls figure. On the data front German Trade balance contracted to 11.7bn, slightly down on forecasts of 12.3bn. The Euro trade with a low of 1.3835 and a high of 1.3983 before ending the session at 1.3922 on Fridays close. The Euro has gained further support in early Asian trade as the IMF has failed to resolve international currency dispute over the weekend, with the market interpreting such development as further reason to sell USD vs. a number of majors.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) closed below previous BoJ intervention levels for the second successive day to trade at a fresh 15 year low. Japanese Finance Minister Noda indicated that further intervention was a distinct possibility to limit further Yen strength in light of recent currency tensions. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 81.72 and a high of 82.57 before closing the session at 82.07. Bank Holiday is scheduled in Japan on Monday.

The Sterling (GBP) also traded in a choppy range before ending the week relatively subdued against the USD. The GBP was not aided by comments made by UK Chancellor Osborne, that he would approve an extension of QE if requested by the BoE. Overall the GBP traded at a low of 1.5824 and a high 1.5965 before closing the day at 1.5951.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was pressured initially following the release of payrolls on Friday as risk aversion saw an outflow from the AUD. On the domestic front RBA Dep. Governor Battelino spoke on the general economic outlook, and indicated that the currency was playing an important role in helping the economy overall, and that inflation was likely to rise to the top of the RBA&amp rsquo s 2-3% target zone. Overall the AUD traded with a low of 0.9711 and a high of 0.9872 before closing the day 0.9861

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) rebounded well as uncertainty in the US economy remained. XAU rose by US$10.30 an ounce to trade at US$1345.30. Oil also rebounded against a weaker dollar, up by 1.2% to US$82.66

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