Daily outlook – 19th July 2011 (00:30GMT)

July 19, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the Dollar was on the front foot yesterday with risk aversion present in both Equities and Commodities. The strength was pared back in the US session however with hope of a Greece deal and US debt Ceiling debate still ongoing. In US stocks, DJIA -94 points closing at 12385, S&amp P -10 points closing at 1305 and NASDAQ -27 points closing at 2765. Looking ahead, June Housing Starts forecast at 0.575m vs. 0.56m previously. Also, Bank of Canada Rate Decision forecast at 1.0%.

The Euro (EUR) hit lows in Europe before stock markets rebounded and hope grew an EU meeting on Thursday will announce an immediate package to support Greece. The market is still very cautious of a contagion in the Debt crisis with Spain/Italy still under pressure and Portugal/Ireland wanting more assistance. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4013 and a high of 1.4137 before closing the day around 1.4125 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to do very little against the Dollar with most of the action on the crosses which are being sold on rallies in the risk averse environment. The levels are close to BOJ intervention levels from after the Earthquake and could find more jawboning from Japanese officials. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.93 and a high of 79.19 before closing the day around 79.05 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was a noted underperformer with EUR/GBP rebounding and Cable dropping below the 1.6100 level after the recent rally ran out of steam. The outlook is very mixed with more range trading expected until the Bank of England&rsquo s monetary policy outlook is more clearly outlined. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6003 and a high of 1.6130 before closing the day at 1.6060 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was pushed lower with the Euro in risk off trading in Asia and Europe and rebounded aggressively with Gold breaking above $1600 and the USD coming under pressure. AUD/NZD hit multi month lows as the NZD outperforms on strong Inflation and rate hike expectations. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0559 and a high of 1.0646 before closing the day at 1.0620 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA July Meeting Minutes Released.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Another day another record high for the precious metal with Gold breaking $1600 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1591 and high of USD $1607 before ending the New York session at USD$1603 an ounce. Oil tested and rebound from $95 a barrel for the second time in recent sessions and could be forming an important support at the level. WTI Oil Closed -$1.31 at $95.93 a barrel.

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