Daily Outlook

January 12, 2016

European stocks have started the week in positive fashion this Monday as gains in the car sector helped recover some of last weeks losses. Germany’s DAX is now trading up over 1% and looks set to halt 6 straight days of losses, as jittery investors look for some stability following the worst possible start to 2016.

After a slight rebound above $33, Oil dropped to a fresh 12 year low at around $31, stemming from ongoing concern in China, uncertainty of suppy and the strengthening US dollar.  Further rapid appreciation of the greenback could see oil edge closer towards $20 per barrel.

According to leading financial services provider Morgan Stanley, “Given the continued U.S. dollar appreciation, $20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency. The U.S. dollar and non-fundamental factors continue to drive oil prices.”

As investors prepare for corporate earning’s season, U.S stocks are expected to see a moderate recovery as investors look to shake the new year hangover of last week.

USD remains the strongest of the major currencies yesterday with gains against most currencies, except GBP of note as the pair bounces back from its recent multi-year low.

Gold for yesterday at least, has lost its shine although the precious metal is still above 1102 following its 1113 high last week.

Trading quoted of the day: “The markets are the same now as they were five or ten years ago because they keep changing-just like they did then.” – Ed Seykota

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: consolidation

Pivot: 1.0945

Our preference: short positions below 1.0945 with targets @ 1.0825 & 1.077 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0945 look for further upside with 1.097 & 1.099 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is badly directed.

Supports and resistances:
1.099 ***
1.097 ***
1.0945 ***
1.085 Last
1.0825 ***
1.077 ***
1.071 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails

Pivot: 117.95

Our preference: short positions below 117.95 with targets @ 117.05 & 116.7 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 117.95 look for further upside with 118.8 & 119.3 as targets.

Comment: as long as 117.95 is resistance, expect a return to 117.05.

Supports and resistances:
119.3 ***
118.8 ***
117.95 ***
117.7 Last
117.05 ***
116.7 ***
116.1 ***

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails

Pivot: 1.449

Our preference: long positions above 1.449 with targets @ 1.46 & 1.4645 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.449 look for further downside with 1.445 & 1.44 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.4685 ***
1.4645 ***
1.46 ***
1.454 Last
1.449 ***
1.445 **
1.44 *

AUD/USD Intraday: rebound expected

Pivot: 0.6955

Our preference: long positions above 0.6955 with targets @ 0.704 & 0.7085 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.6955 look for further downside with 0.6925 & 0.69 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
0.713 ***
0.7085 ***
0.704 ***
0.6990 Last
0.6955 ***
0.6925 ***
0.69 **

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: the downside prevails

Pivot: 4947

Our preference: short positions below 4947 with targets @ 4823 & 4750 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4947 look for further upside with 5040 & 5100 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 4947 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 4823 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
5100
5040
4947
4879 Last
4823
4750
4700

 

 

 

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