Daily Outlook

January 26, 2016

Mild improvements in Asian markets overnight were not enough to support US and European equity indices, as oil price declines set the tone. Despite promising policy support from the ECB, markets remain wary of weak demand from China and falling oil prices. Early signs of an equity market rebound appear pre-mature, as the FTSE100 dropped 0.4% along with a 0.3% decline in the DAX. US markets fared no better with the S&P 500 and DJIA falling 1.56% and 1.29% respectively.

Oil resumed its decline overnight, after its largest rally in more than seven years. After hitting a high of 32.74 earlier yesterday, WTI is back trading around the $29.66/bbl. This drop comes amid reports of unwavering supply out of the Middle East. Iraq output reached a record high last month, with fields in central and southern regions producing as much as 4.13 million barrels a day. Supply out of Saudi Arabia is also set to continue as low oil prices will not reduce the world’s biggest crude exporter’s expenditure on energy projects. On the demand side, China’s diesel demand has fallen for a fourth consecutive month, adding to the bearish market sentiment.

For the week ahead, FOMC, RBNZ and BOJ meetings are under the spotlight. The FOMC is likely to announce no change in monetary stance on Wednesday, following its rate hike last December. Despite weak inflation, RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, despite risks to further rate cuts increasing. Friday’s BoJ announcement will be accompanied with a series of macroeconomic data, providing a future outlook for inflation, unemployment rates and industrial production.

Quote of the day: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffet

 

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1.082

Our preference: long positions above 1.082 with targets @ 1.0865 & 1.0895 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.082 look for further downside with 1.0785 & 1.077 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Supports and resistances:

1.092 ***

1.0895 **

1.0865 *

1.0849 Last

1.082 **

1.0785 **

1.077 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails

Pivot: 118.85

Our preference: short positions below 118.85 with targets @ 117.95 & 117.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 118.85 look for further upside with 119.2 & 119.6 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:

119.6 ***

119.2 ***

118.85 ***

118.33 Last

117.95 ***

117.5 ***

117.05 **

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure

Pivot: 1.431

Our preference: short positions below 1.431 with targets @ 1.42 & 1.4165 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.431 look for further upside with 1.436 & 1.44 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Supports and resistances:

1.44 ***

1.436 ***

1.431 ***

1.424 Last

1.42 ***

1.4165 **

1.4125 ***

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails

Pivot: 0.6995

Our preference: short positions below 0.6995 with targets @ 0.6925 & 0.688 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.6995 look for further upside with 0.7025 & 0.7045 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Supports and resistances:

0.7045 ***

0.7025 ***

0.6995 **

0.6948 Last

0.6925 ***

0.688 **

0.684 ***

S&P 500 (CME) (H5) Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 2054

Our preference: Short positions below 2054 with targets @ 2036 & 2027 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 2054 look for further upside with 2065 & 2082 as targets.

Comment: As long as 2054 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:

2082 ***

2065 *

2054 ***

2044 Last

2036 ***

2027 **

2020 **

Important note: These technical and research reports are provided to easyMarkets® as a subscriber of third party providers. They are provided for informative purposes only and in no way can they be considered as a recommendation by easyMarkets® to you to engage in any trade. Hence, easyMarkets® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with these reports or similar reports. You hereby acknowledge that using the information entailed in these reports is at your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to these reports against easyMarkets®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use these reports.

EasyMarkets Pty Ltd (AFSL 246566 ABN 73107184510) makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. EasyMarkets recommends that you read the Regulation Page, The Product Disclosure Statement, the Terms and Conditions and the Financial Services Guide before making any decision concerning EasyMarkets’ products.

Back to daily Archive

join THOUSANDS OF other people
who trade with easymarkets

Two minutes is all it takes.

You're almost there!

Finish your application and start trading today.

DON'T MISS A TRADING OPPORTUNITY

Two minutes is all it takes.