Daily Outlook

February 1, 2016

Financial markets reacted to BoJ’s decision, reviving a risk-on sentiment, driving equity and commodity prices. Japan dominated headlines on Friday as the BoJ continued its pursuit of inflation targets. A tight 5-4 vote by the BoJ board saw the implementation of a negative interest rate of 0.1% on certain excess holdings of cash. The rate change aims at incentivizing banks to lend and companies to spend. The BoJ highlighted the increasing downside risks to growth and inflation as key drivers to the rate decision. Recent financial market turmoil, sharp oil price declines, and growth concerns in emerging markets, in particular China, continue to weigh heavily on policy decisions. Kuroda has indicated that further action may be required if wage growth fails to strengthen enough to generate 2% inflation. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 121.25 level at time of writing, after markets reacted bullish to the BoJ rate decision.

Indices were on the rise as the risk-on sentiment took hold. The European session boasted gains of 2.56% for the FTSE 100, with the DAX and IBEX closing up 1.6% and 2.65% respectively. Positive sentiment appeared to spill over into the US session with the DJIA up 2.47% and the S&P500 gaining 2.48%.

Oil prices continue to hover around the $33.56/bbl mark having rebounded from record lows. Recent price movements are in-part a market reaction to potential production negotiations between Russia and Saudi Arabia.  Although markets reacted positively to the news, historically, co-ordination between both countries has proven difficult, with future negotiations expected to be no different.

Trading quote of the day: Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks. Bruce Kovner

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD ST: key resistance at 1.11.

Pivot: 1.11

Our preference: short positions below 1.11 with targets @ 1.045 & 1.019 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.11 look for further upside with 1.1495 & 1.172 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. The pair stands below its strong resistance @ 1.11.

Supports and resistances:
1.172 ***
1.1495 ***
1.11 ***
1.0822 Last
1.045 ***
1.019 ***
0.985 **

USD/JPY ST: rebound.

Pivot: 116

Our preference: long positions above 116 with targets @ 123.8 & 126 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 116 look for further downside with 113.85 & 110 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
127.7 **
126 ***
123.8 ***
121.37 Last
116 ***
113.85 ***
110 **

GBP/USD ST: the downside prevails

Pivot: 1.495

Our preference: short positions below 1.495 with targets @ 1.395 & 1.363 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.495 look for further upside with 1.524 & 1.566 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Supports and resistances:
1.566 ***
1.524 ***
1.495 ***
1.424 Last
1.395 ***
1.363 **
1.318 **

AUD/USD ST: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 0.739

Our preference: short positions below 0.739 with targets @ 0.665 & 0.635 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.739 look for further upside with 0.753 & 0.7805 as targets.

Comment: as long as 0.739 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
0.7805 ***
0.753 ***
0.739 ***
0.7068 Last
0.665 ***
0.635 **
0.6125 ***

 

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 4945

Our preference: long positions above 4945 with targets @ 5040 & 5080 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4945 look for further downside with 4890 & 4850 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Supports and resistances:
5130
5080
5040
5002 Last
4945
4890
4850

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