Daily Outlook

February 23, 2016

European and US equity markets rejoiced overnight posting considerable gains as OIL prices climbed. Speculation of OPEC and non-OPEC output freeze helped drive WTI upwards of 8% while Brent rose 5.4%. Oil price gains supported US equities as the S&P500 and DJIA boasted 1.4% gains. Despite Brexit fears, the FTSE closed 1.47% in the green while the DAX gained 2%. Unlike equity markets, the GBP was unable to avoid a selloff as the GBPUSD pair tumbled from 1.4400 down to 1.4055 (most in 6 years), it has since retraced sitting at 1.41470 at time of writing. This followed London Major Boris Johnson backing Brexit plans from the EU, as the country readies for a referendum on June 23.

Gold prices fell sharply from 1226 to 1201 after gains in equity markets shifted investors focus from the yellow metal which is sought in times of uncertainty and falling stocks. Gold has since pushed back up towards 1210 levels.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve for its next move on interest rates. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen has indicated the central bank would stick to its rate hike program, policymakers appear at odds and traders have all but given up on a hike this year.

ECB easing remains likely as the flash Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 52.3 to 51.0 showing further signs that the region continues to experience slowing growth in Q1. Pressure continues to mount on the ECB coming into the March 10 meeting where they will decide whether further easing is necessary. Analysts from Goldman Sachs are expecting a 10bp cut in the deposit rate and an extension of QE to September 2017. Further monetary support will continue to place downward pressure on the EUR.

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Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure

Pivot: 1.1080

Our preference: short positions below 1.1080 with targets @ 1.1000 & 1.0965 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1080 look for further upside with 1.1100 & 1.1140 as targets.

Comment: a break below 1.1000 would trigger a drop towards 1.0965.

Supports and resistances:
1.1140 ***
1.1100 ***
1.1080 ***
1.1024 Last
1.1000 **
1.0965 ***
1.0935 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 112.70.

Pivot: 112.70

Our preference: long positions above 112.70 with targets @ 113.35 & 113.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 112.70 look for further downside with 112.35 & 111.65 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
114.15
113.65
113.35
113.00 Last
112.70
112.35
111.65

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.4250

Our preference: short positions below 1.4250 with targets @ 1.4055 & 1.3990 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4250 look for further upside with 1.4340 & 1.4405 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
1.4405 ***
1.4340 **
1.4250 ***
1.4149 Last
1.4055 **
1.3990 **
1.3920 **

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 0.7195

Our preference: long positions above 0.7195 with targets @ 0.7245 & 0.7270 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7195 look for further downside with 0.7155 & 0.7130 as targets.

Comment: the break above the resistance at 0.7195 triggered an upward acceleration to 0.7245.

Supports and resistances:
0.7305
0.7270
0.7245
0.7227 Last
0.7195
0.7155
0.7130

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 4965

Our preference: long positions above 4965 with targets @ 5023 & 5075 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4965 look for further downside with 4933 & 4890 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
5100
5075
5023
4993 Last
4965
4933
4890

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