Daily Outlook

February 26, 2016

Global equities recovered overnight driven an improvement in risk-sentiment, supported by gains in oil prices. The market continues their speculation on oil direction as oil made strong gains ahead of an upcoming meeting between major oil producers in March. WTI jumped over $1.50 to $33.06/bbl while Brent is currently trading at $33.56/bbl. Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino announced his country, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar have agreed to meet in March, further discussing the potential for a production freeze. Despite these negotiations to freeze production at January highs, Iran refuses to limit production without special considerations. Until we see commitment from Iran and Iraq, chances of a trend reversal are limited.

European equities struggled this week, as fears surrounding Britain’s exit of the EU rattled the market. Despite this, European equities managed to close well in the green overnight, with the DAX and FTSE up 2.38% and 1.79% respectively. US equities closed upwards of 1.1-1.3% higher off the back of Energy sector gains and stronger than expected Durable Goods data.

Gold continues to act as a rollercoaster ride as the positive/negative sentiment in equities has been shifting frequently in recent days. GOLD ‘s negative correlation with Stocks has the metal hovering around $1235. Traders should be weary of significant fluctuations as the yellow metal has been experiencing +/- $10 swings lately.

Oil and Gold aren’t the only commodities currently experiencing wild price movements. Sugar futures surged 9% on Tuesday, posting their biggest gain in New York since 1993. The surge can be attributed to a number of factors, including; Argentine port delays, a squeeze on European white sugar exports and a projected increase in the world output deficit by the International Sugar Organization. ANZ bank analysts still believe sugar has more upside as the world production deficit worsens and funds cut their net long positions.

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0990.

Pivot: 1.0990

Our preference: long positions above 1.0990 with targets @ 1.1065 & 1.1100 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0990 look for further downside with 1.0955 & 1.0935 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 1.0990 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Supports and resistances:
1.1140 ***
1.1100 ***
1.1065 ***
1.1019 Last
1.0990 ***
1.0955 ***
1.0935 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails

Pivot: 111.95

Our preference: long positions above 111.95 with targets @ 113.05 & 113.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 111.95 look for further downside with 111.30 & 111.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
113.60
113.35
113.05
112.90 Last
111.95
111.30
111.00

GBP/USD Intraday: range.

Pivot: 1.3875

Our preference: long positions above 1.3875 with targets @ 1.3995 & 1.4050 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3875 look for further downside with 1.3820 & 1.3750 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.4120 **
1.4050 **
1.3995 ***
1.3956 Last
1.3875 ***
1.3820 **
1.3750 **

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 0.7190

Our preference: long positions above 0.7190 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.7275 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7190 look for further downside with 0.7160 & 0.7140 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Supports and resistances:
0.7300
0.7275
0.7255
0.7235 Last
0.7190
0.7160
0.7140

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 4895

Our preference: short positions below 4895 with targets @ 4800 & 4775 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4895 look for further upside with 4970 & 5010 as targets.

Comment: as long as 4895 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
5010
4970
4895
4847 Last
4800
4775
4730

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