Daily Outlook

Global equities markets are in euphoria as the S&P500 hit a new 2016 high. China’s March exports of 18.7% was welcomed by the market, settling nervousness over China’s outlook. Asian equity markets were first to react, with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei up 3.2% and 3% respectively, one of the strongest rallies this year. Risk appetite continued in the US session as JPMorgan’s earnings beat expectation and the board approved 1.9bn in buybacks. This acted as a catalyst for a broad financial sector rally. Fed’s Beige Book was positive, reporting modest to moderate economic growth and increased wages in all but one district. Search for yield is likely to continue as central banks maintain their dovish approach; Yellen confirming her favour for a cautious approach to monetary policy, citing a great deal of uncertainty in the current market environment.

The Australian Dollar broke above 77cents after China’s March export data beat expectations and Q1 power consumption up 3.2% year to year. This resilience was short lived as USD strength returned to the market. However, the AUD maintained its strength against EUR, JPY and GBP. Iron ore continue its upward momentum, up 12% over 3 days. Employment data is due today, with market expecting 19k jobs.

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Trade SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ Intraday: the upside prevails. Pivot: 4987 Our preference: long positions above 4987 with targets @ 5083 & 5120 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 4987 look for further downside with 4935 & 4890 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. Supports and resistances: 5145 5120 5083 5074 Last 4987 4935 4890

Ticker : AP

Trade S&P 500‏ (CME)‏ Intraday: limited upside. Pivot: 2054.00 Our preference: long positions above 2054.00 with targets @ 2075.00 & 2084.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 2054.00 look for further downside with 2043.00 & 2034.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. Prices are supported by the 20-period simple moving average but the upward potential should be limited by a strong resistance area set between 2075 & 2095. Supports and resistances: 2095.00 *** 2084.00 *** 2075.00 * 2073.00 Last 2054.00 ** 2043.00 ** 2034.00 **

Ticker : ES

Trade Hang Seng‏ (HKFE)‏ Intraday: further upside. Pivot: 20700.00 Our preference: long positions above 20700.00 with targets @ 21500.00 & 21800.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 20700.00 look for further downside with 20400.00 & 20170.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance. Supports and resistances: 22000.00 21800.00 21500.00 21400.00 Last 20700.00 20400.00 20170.00

Ticker : HSI

Trade AUD/USD Intraday: consolidation. Pivot: 0.7720 Our preference: short positions below 0.7720 with targets @ 0.7615 & 0.7580 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 0.7720 look for further upside with 0.7755 & 0.7800 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. Supports and resistances: 0.7800 0.7755 0.7720 0.7657 Last 0.7615 0.7580 0.7525

Ticker : AUD

Trade EUR/AUD  Daily Chart: the downside prevails. Pivot: 1.5400 Our preference: short positions below 1.5400 with targets @ 1.4370 & 1.4000 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.5400 look for further upside with 1.5700 & 1.6160 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish. Supports and resistances: 1.6160 1.5700 1.5400 1.4760 Last 1.4370 1.4000 1.3650

Ticker : EURAUD