The US monthly employment data came mixed last Friday. Non-farm employment change missed expectations while average hourly earnings was better than anticipated. The US dollar dropped an average of 50 pips against major currencies initially, rebounding quickly however as the market digested the broader content of the report. Federal Reserve member Dudley, at an interview about the employment data, stated that high weighing would not be placed on the April report by the Fed and it is reasonable to expect for two hikes this year. The dollar surged on the commentary, finishing strong at the close. This NFP report confirmed the continuing improvement of the US labour market. Despite these modest improvements, the pace has been slow and mixed, with the market only pricing in an 8% chance for a June hike and 50% by the end of the year.
Sunday morning, strong exports let to China April trade balance beating estimates, $45.56B trade surplus compared to $38.4B expected. Nonetheless, exports fell 1.8% against April 2015 and the overall exports in the Jan-April period are down 7.6%. Additionally, imports fell 10.9% in April and 12.8% in the collective Jan-April period. The numbers suggest a continued soft global economy and slowdown in domestic construction, infrastructure and other capital spending in China. We believe that incoming data can be seen as a sign that Chinese factories are not anticipating high future manufacturing orders. As manufacturers keep inventories lean and the infrastructure and construction industries continue to operate over-capacity this could foreshadow the next slow-down in the Chinese and global economy.
Following the news that Saudi Arabia ousted its 30-years oil minister Ali Ai-Naimi, oil has opened over $1 higher in early Asian session, currently trading just below $46/barrel from $44.58 last Friday close. Khalid-al Falih, chairman of the state oil company (i.e. Saudi Aramcco), will replace Ali al-Naimi. He said that Saudi Arabia will commit to maintaining its position in the international energy market, and strengthen its position as the world’s most reliable energy supplier. Meanwhile, the Alberta fires in Canada, may have also intensified fears of reduced supply in oil market, pushing oil price to reach its April high at $46.76/barrel.
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