Daily Outlook

OIL/USD Broke above the key $50 a barrel level yesterday and this helped propel the Commodity Currency complex  higher. (Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar)

The Australian Dollar was already on the front foot as the bar was raised for the RBA to cut interest rates further in 2014. Australia Q2 CPI numbers on the 27^th July will be critical for the central banks next move.

Weak USD continued to be a theme overnight with the market digesting the weak NFP number and Yellens more dovish tone on Monday night. Chances of a July hike now down to 20%.

NZD/USD is the main currency in focus for the next 24 hours as the RBNZ meet tomorrow morning. Many analysts see pressure building on the central bank to do something to stem the rampant strength of the Kiwi dollar in recent months.

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Trade AUD/USD Intraday: further advance. Pivot: 0.7380 Our preference: long positions above 0.7380 with targets @ 0.7480 & 0.7515 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 0.7380 look for further downside with 0.7355 & 0.7315 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance. Supports and resistances: 0.7545 0.7515 0.7480 0.7452 Last 0.7380 0.7355 0.7315

Trade AUD/NZD intraday: as long as 1.0670 is support look for 1.0730 1.0670 is our pivot point. Our preference:as long as 1.0670 is support look for 1.0730. Alternative scenario: below 1.0670, expect 1.0650 and 1.0640. Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 1.0672 and 1.0629). Supports and resistances: 1.0750 ** 1.0740 * 1.0730 ** 1.0710 1.0690 last 1.0680 1.0670 ** 1.0650 * 1.0640 **

Trade Gold spot Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Pivot: 1233.00 Our preference: long positions above 1233.00 with targets @ 1251.00 & 1258.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1233.00 look for further downside with 1223.00 & 1217.00 as targets. Comment: a support base at 1233.00 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation. Supports and resistances: 1261.00 1258.00 1251.00 1243.58 Last 1233.00 1223.00 1217.00