Daily Outlook

August 19, 2016

 

AUDUSD tipped above 0.7700 once again on the back of a weak USD in the aftermath of the July FOMC meeting minutes and a decent job report in Australia. The report shows unemployment rate down to 5.7%, beating expectation 5.8%. Total number of new jobs created increased 26,200, well above expectation 11,000. It is mainly contributed by a huge jump of part-time employment to 71,600 from -33,200 prior. But the downside was a soft full-time employment data, declining by 45,4000. The drop in full-time employment is the largest in almost three years, indicating the labour market may not be fully back on track.

 

The US Session saw another reversal in the AUD/USD back to 0.7670 in what has become a common theme in the last few days as the market orbits 0.7700 and doesn’t yet have the strength to push higher. The inability to sustain above 0.7700 indicates strong supply at higher levels, leaving the room for a corrective move lower.

Thursday saw the oil price edged up above $48.00, extending recent gains to a sixth straight day, without any deep correction. The next psychological key level $50.00 is within distance to test given the recent momentum. This straight 19% rally from 1st of August indicates a bull oil market technically, turning sharply from a bear market previously. Oil mainly got fuel from the prospects of freeze production, the decline of US stockpiles revealed in Wednesday’s EIA report and the weak USD. Russia’s energy minister kept the door open to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members.

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