Daily Outlook

October 14, 2016

Traders are focussed on Chinese CPI data for the upcoming Asian session after weak trade balance data yesterday sent shockwaves through the markets. AUD/USD hit month lows near 0.7510 before recovering to 0.7560 by the end of the US session as the Dow shrugged off China worries.

 

The New Zealand press made claims that the expected December rate cut is likely to occur in November. The rate cut is in a response to subdued inflation currently under the RBNZ’s target band of 1-3%, making next week’s Q3 CPI data critical.

 

Janet Yellen is speaking at 13:30GMT where she will discuss the inflation data and evaluate last week’s non-farm payrolls. A hawkish attitude may result if she looks to influence markets pricing in of December Interest rate hike chances.

 

BoE Governor Carney speaking for the first time since last weeks ‘flash crash’. Last week’s PMI data and well as Tuesdays upcoming CPI should be on the agenda.

 

Oil fell tested $50 on a sharp build in crude oil inventories but we have rebounded to $50.50 into the close.

 

 AUD/USD 10/13/2016 8:08 PM 
Trend daily chart (=)  Trend weekly chart (=)
AUD/USD Intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 0.7505

Our preference: long positions above 0.7505 with targets at 0.7590 & 0.7610 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7505 look for further downside with 0.7485 & 0.7455 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
0.7630 ***
0.7610 ***
0.7590 ***
0.7573 Last
0.7505 **
0.7485 **
0.7455 ***

Ticker : AUD  Add to my portfolio
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