Daily Outlook

October 18, 2016

NZ CPI just came in at 0.2% above the 0.0% forecast seeing kiwi strengthen immediately to 0.7175. This casts a doubt for a November 10th rate hike leading to more short coverings at 0.7185. Aussie also lost out against the Kiwi dropping to 1.06280 asking questions. Kiwi traders should also be aware there is a dairy auction tonight (London time). The price index of the past four auctions have been in decline with the last one being negative.  – (If you did not receive a text notification with this data let me know)

 

RBA governor Lowe was decisive and bold mapping out an ambitious future and policy under his leadership as he discussed inflation and monetary policy. With an exceptionally bullish attitude he referenced commodity prices rising that may signal an end to the mining slump. He set his scale for inflation against the health of household finances. Most notably he referenced interest rates as historically low, noting them as bad for savers showing ambition to raise rates with a modest response by markets.  AUD/JPY most notable with positive momentum pushing moving averages higher and keeping it above 78.950 range.

 

GBP CPI data today will be another determinant as to the strength of the UK economy but is unlikely to turn its deadly path around.

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