Daily Outlook

November 18, 2016

The Australian Dollar crashed to 0.74050 vs USD as a trifecta of a steepening US yield curve, Dollar index gains, and strong US data overnight. The technical remain bearish with the RSI balanced strictly lower as no data is likely to overturn the fall. AUD/NZD favours a downtrend as a post trump low of 1.0538 was hit but ongoing coal and iron ore surges provide Aussie potential.

 

Building permits, CPI, and unemployment claims all beat expectations keeping the momentum from last week’s Trump fever. The expansionary forward guidance from several Fed speakers had shifted the spots and futures markets to price in a rate hike amid a positive consensus on fiscal Stimulus that may be provided by Trump’s Infrastructure plan. Fed Chair Yellen referenced an upcoming rate hike but that raises would be gradual thereafter as she expects some correction to the recent exuberance. USD/JPY broke past 110.00 in this early Asian session with techs leaning to the topside. Markets have become adjusted to Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments as Stocks finished near their tops as it was rumoured Mitt Romney may become secretary of state, Nasdaq led the charge up 0.74%, S&P up 0.47%, the Dow up 0.19%. The prospect of higher rates is overturned by the proposed fiscal policy and lower regulation that will favour companies.

 

US Crude settled -0.33% down at 45.42 as it was sold from the 200DMA moving average of 46.44.

 

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