Daily Outlook

March 27, 2017

The end of the trading week saw President Donald Trumps first real campaign promise defeat, as his republican health care legislation was pulled after a lack of support. Obamacare remains in place. Trump has promised to move directly on to his tax plans. US markets moves were choppy on the news, lacking any direction.

Dow -0.29%, S&P500 -0.08%. The VIX took a breather after a blistering 10% move, trading down 1.22% at 12.96.

Septembers German elections shifted course over the weekend with Chancellor Angela Merkel winning a key regional election on Sunday. Voters preferring to take a ‘stability and reliability’ approach in choosing their preferred party. This morning’s early open has seen EUR/USD gap through the 1.0818 resistance level, then trade as high as 1.0843.

US Dollar Index closed at 99.56 on Saturday morning, relatively unchanged from its Friday open. The index looks to be finding support at the 99.30 level. A break of this support will have flow on effects to the Euro, which could show further strength after it’s test of 1.084.

Some decent daily chart correlations between Iron Ore and the AUD/USD since mid-Feb, as the commodity sphere has been hitting headlines. The Aussie has retraced half of the move from 15 March in conjunction with selling pressure in the commodity. Few economic announcements for Australia this week will likely see the currency look to US and Europe for direction, and of course any major commodity moves.

A gap lower in the ASX200 this morning after Fridays 50-point rally. Some support around 5,740 may halt further selling and see a range play out today. Gold showing strength, after retracing losses from early March, a test of 1,265 is on the cards should US stock markets and the Dollar Index sell off this week.

Traders to keep in mind of Daylight savings changes across Europe yesterday.

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