- Commodity prices continued to decline during the US trading session with oil falling nearly 5%, hitting a six month low worries of oversupply and slowing demand in China. Copper (-4.75%) and Silver also down in the session. Iron ore suffering the same fate, trading recent lows with further losses expected.
- French Presidential Election on Sunday. A surprise win by Le Pen would smash the EUR/USD and send markets into a frenzy. A Macron win likely already priced in the EUR/USD for the most part – short Euro limit orders with tight GSLOs looking attractive.
- DOW (-0.03%) and S&P (0.06%) recovered losses on the session. A behaviour that has been playing out since April. Shorts still having a tough time.
- US earnings season has been strong with more than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported outperforming estimates.
- The house passed the bill to repeal and replace Obamacare by a 217 to 213 vote. The bill will now go to the senate.
- EUR/USD (up 3.7% in the last four weeks) and EUR/JPY up ~100 pips overnight with Dollar Yen taking pause at the 112.50 level.
- Non-Farms report tonight. The Fed will be watching the earnings growth closely, given the unemployment rate is the lowest in a decade it will look to a rise in wages to point to real growth in the labour market.
- Quarterly RBA Policy Statement today. Growth and Inflation commentary will be key to the Aussie’s direction in the session. Any lacklustre forecasts combined with a strong Non-Farms figure tonight could see the Aussie end the week with a 0.73 handle.
- Australian Budget release next Tuesday evening. Infrastructure spending, deficit expansion and risk of AAA rating the top headlines.
Today’s Economic calendar (AEST)
- Japan holiday today
- 10:30am RBA Quarterly Policy Statement
- 1:00pm New Zealand Inflation Expectations q/q
- 10:30 Canada and US Employment Figures
- 3:30am Janet Yellen speaks
- Sunday night: French Presidential Election
