Daily outlook – 21st April 2011 (00:30GMT)

April 21, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks markets surged on the back of good earnings and solid economic data. &lsquo Risk On&rsquo trading led to a USD selloff even as March Existing home sales rallied 3.7% vs. -8.9% previously m/m. Earning season is in full swing with most beating estimates so far. In US stocks, DJIA +186 points closing at 12453, S&amp P +17 points closing at 1330 and NASDAQ +57 points closing at 2802. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 394k vs. 412k previously. March Philly FED forecast at 37.4 vs. 43.3 previously.

The Euro (EUR) surged from the start of Asia to break above 1.4500 and to fresh year highs. EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP also leapt higher with the market focusing on good Spanish Bond Auctions and talk China would revalue its currency lower. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4353 and a high of 1.4549 before closing the day around 1.4520 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April German IFO forecast at 110.5 vs. 111.1.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) hit day highs in Asia with the major above Y83 before reversing in the US session as USD weakness overwhelmed. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY moved multiple Yen higher and have resumed the uptrend. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.25 and a high of 83.12 before closing the day around 82.25 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) moved to 1.6400 but underperformed the rest of the market on the back of disappointing MPC minutes. EUR/GBP took advantage to climb above 0.8800. The market will place more importance on tonight&rsquo s Retail Sales given conflicting data in recent weeks. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6307 and a high of 1.6429 before closing the day at 1.6405 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Retail Sales forecast at -0.5% vs. -1% previously m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) popped all-time highs in Asia to test 1.0600 but the market was only warming up and rallied for most of the day to break above 1.0700 late US session. AUD/JPY broke above Y88 and is eyeing a retest of Y90 the previous high. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0538 and a high of 1.0729 before closing the day at 1.0710 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) probed higher above $1500 level with the market continuing to find support on dips. Overall trading with a low of USD$1493 and high of USD $1506 before ending the New York session at USD$1501 an ounce. Crude Oil broke higher above $110 and continued higher with momentum accelerating. WTI Oil Closed +$3.17 at $111.45 a barrel.

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