Daily outlook – 25th July 2011 (00:30GMT)

July 25, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the market is now turning its attention to the developing US debt ceiling crisis with time running out on a deal between the President and Republicans. The USD found some support on profit taking in the Euro with the market cautious that a new US debt issue will cause more volatility. In US stocks, DJIA -43 points closing at 12681, S&amp P +1 points closing at 1345 and NASDAQ +24 points closing at 2858. Looking ahead, traders closely watching the Debt ceiling debate.

The Euro (EUR) broke below 1.4400 but found support and finished close to the figure even as rating agencies looked over the Greece debt deal to decide whether it was a default or not. German IFO fell back to 112.9 vs. 114.5 previously on global growth concerns. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4322 and a high of 1.4437 before closing the day around 1.4360 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY remained under pressure with the Yen and CHF the preferred safe havens in light of the US debt worries. Early Monday the USD/JPY traded new lows on news over the weekend that no debt deal had been agreed. These levels are bringing daily comments from BOJ and MOF officials concerns about the strength of the Yen. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.25 and a high of 78.72 before closing the day around 78.40 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was very quiet pivoting the 1.6300 level consolidating the rally on Thursday. EUR/GBP fell back to test 0.8800 but is grinding higher on the post Greece deal enthusiasm for the single currency. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6263 and a high of 1.6327 before closing the day at 1.6300 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell asleep on Friday testing higher in Europe but falling back to opening levels as US stocks fell into the close on debt ceiling concerns. Crosses are more interesting with AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY providing plenty of movement. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0815 and a high of 1.0874 before closing the day at 1.0850 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q2 PPI forecast at 0.7% vs. 1.2% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold surged into the weekend on US debt concerns. Overall trading with a low of USD$1583 and high of USD $1608 before ending the New York session at USD$1601 an ounce. Oil tested $100 again but the key level held and is a natural big figure resistance. WTI Oil Closed +$0.70 at $99.70 a barrel.

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