Daily outlook – 29th April 2011 (00:30GMT)

April 29, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD hit fresh year lows against most currencies in Europe overnight but pared back those losses in the US session on profit taking. Weekly Jobless claims jumped to 429k vs. 392k expected. Q1 GDP also missed at 1.8% vs. 2.0% forecast Q/Q. In US stocks, DJIA +72 points closing at 12763, S&amp P +4 points closing at 1359 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2872. Looking ahead, April Chicago PMI forecast at 68.5 vs. 70.6 previously. Also ahead, April UoM Consumer sentiment forecast at 61.3 vs. 61.2.

The Euro (EUR) was strong for most of the day finding support below 1.4800 on a few attempts lower throughout the day. German Unemployment fell -37k in a continuation of strong jobs data in the biggest economy in Europe. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4772 and a high of 1.4883 before closing the day around 1.4820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March German Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.3% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very quiet on the major with USD/JPY trading inside a 40 pip range during the US and European sessions given weak US data hurting sentiment. Crosses are also being watched closely with AUD/JPY approaching the Y90 level. The BOJ Held at 0.1% as forecast. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.38 and a high of 82.29 before closing the day around 82.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the goodwill towards the pounded faded in the US session and EUR/GBP broke back above 0.8900. GBP underperformance has been evident in recent week with the UK economic recovery lagging most developed countries. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6622 and a high of 1.6749 before closing the day at 1.6645 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported on a dip below 1.0900 and ended near all-time highs. Strong commodities led by silver and gold helped encourage the Aussie to push higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0861 and a high of 1.0950 before closing the day at 1.0930 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold pushed new highs but found bouts of volatility due to sharp profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1524 and high of USD $1538 before ending the New York session at USD$1534 an ounce. Crude Oil traded at fresh multiyear highs before reversing to $112. WTI Oil Closed -$0.70 at $113.20 a barrel.

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