Daily outlook – 29th March 2011 (00:30GMT)

March 29, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with stock markets doing little to open the week the FX market looked to differing central bank outlooks for inspiration. Oil fell back on rebel advancement in Libya and this encouraged a third day of gold profit taking. February Pending Home Sales came in stronger than expected at 2.1% vs. -1% previously. In US stocks, DJIA -22 points closing at 12197, S&amp P -3 points closing at 1310 and NASDAQ -12 points closing at 2730. Looking ahead, January Case Shiller HPI forecast at -1% m/m.

The Euro (EUR) ECB President Trichet inspired a fresh rally in the Euro across the board stating that inflation was beginning to show signs of being persistent. EUR/GBP hit multimonth highs above 0.8820. German political concerns and Portugal bailout suggestions are being overlooked for now. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4025 and a high of 1.4117 before closing the day around 1.4075 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market grinded higher on support for risk and strong crosses. EUR/JPY pushed back above Y115. USD/JPY resistance was found at Y81.80 before stabilizing. GBP/JPY has been underperforming in recent session as Cable falls back but is holding above Y130. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.49 and a high of 81.87 before closing the day around 81.70 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) we the underperforming as MPC member Posen talked down the inflation threat and GBP/USD broke below 1.6000. Broad GBP weakness has been seen in recent session with the market struggling to find buyers on most pairs. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5934 and a high of 1.6040 before closing the day at 1.5990 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) printed new highs again above 1.0300 before staging a sharp reversal on profit taking and weak US stocks into the close. AUD/JPY was briefly above Y84 to trade near year highs at Y84.50 with plenty of demand noted. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0224 and a high of 1.0316 before closing the day at 1.0240 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Was sold on rallies to head lower on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1409 and high of USD $1428 before ending the New York session at USD$1419 an ounce. Oil moved lower on reports that Libyan Rebels have taken control of key Oil ports. WTI Oil Closed -$1.50 at $103.86 a barrel.

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