Daily Outlook 2nd November 2010

November 2, 2010

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed to start the week as ISM manufacturing hit five month highs in the month of October, coming in at 56.9, previous 54.4. The figures were not enough to shrug off the poor GDP figures released on Friday and expectations of a larger QE package being extended in Wednesday&rsquo s FOMC meeting. Economists expect the Fed to announce a plan to purchase $500 Billion in long-term securities according to surveys extended by Bloomberg news. US share markets were flat on Monday ending the day at +0.06%, S&amp P 0.15% and the NASDAQ down 0.1%. Focus is on Congressional elections in the US, up until FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

The Euro (EUR) was subdued on Monday trade, as uncertainty of the Fed QE package weighed on the ability of the single currency to hold its footing above 1.40. The Euro is expected to trade in a range leading up to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.3863 a high of 1.4011 before closing the day at 1.3879.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) spiked higher, off 15 year lows during the Asian session, on muted BoJ intervention. Those rumours were soon put to rest with Traders citing a &ldquo technical glitch&rdquo as the primary reason for the 1% move higher. The USDJPY traded with a low of 80.25 and a high of 81.36 before closing the day at 80.58

The Sterling (GBP) saw PMI manufacturing improve in October to 54.9, from September&rsquo s reading of 53.5 (10 month low). The reading ensured the Sterling Pound remained well bid for much of the trading day, firmly establishing itself above the key 1.60 mark. The GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.6009 a low of 1.6089 before closing the day at 1.6031

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher in Asia on buoyant Chinese PMI figures during the Asian session, coming in at 54.7 from previous 53.8 for the month of October. Upside was limited on the AUD as market remains unclear on direction of the RBA in their meeting scheduled on Tuesday (0330 GMT). Markets are pricing a 27% chance of a rate hike to 4.75% from 4.50%. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9827 and a high of 0.9914 before closing the day at 0.9846.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) XAU eased from Friday&rsquo s gains, falling US$7.00 to US$1350.60 an ounce. Oil moved higher to US$83.86 a barrel, as Saudi Oil minister indicated the prices would remain comfortable for consumers in a range between $70 to $90.

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