Daily outlook – 30th March 2011 (00:30GMT)

March 30, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was still on the back foot as stock markets remained strong with traders ignoring weak US data. January Case Shiller house prices fell -3% y/y as the downtrend continued. February Consumer Confidence dropped to 63.4 vs. 72 previously on the sharp hike in Fuel prices. In US stocks, DJIA +81 points closing at 12279, S&amp P -9 points closing at 1319 and NASDAQ +26 points closing at 2756. Looking ahead, March ADP Employment Report forecast at 203k vs. 217k previously.

The Euro (EUR) Was able to extend Tuesday&rsquo s rally above 1.4100 before reversing on FED speaker Bullard hawkish comments the QE2 program maybe be cut short by 100bln. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4047 and a high of 1.4150 before closing the day around 1.4110 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Economic Sentiment is forecast at 107.8 vs. 107.5.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong pushing to pre earthquake levels above Y82 on the hawkish comments from a Fed member that they may close the QE2 program early. AUD/JPY moved above Y84 and EUR/JPY above Y116. The Yen is under pressure technically with many pairs breaking higher altogether. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.49 and a high of 82.55 before closing the day around 82.45 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to underperform and was punished against the Euro which hit year highs above 0.8830 on EUR/GBP before paring back some gains. Cable continued to pivot 1.6000 with range traders enjoying some stability since Monday. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5934 and a high of 1.6046 before closing the day at 1.6010 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March CBI Distributive Trades forecast at 0 vs. 6 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong bouncing off European lows to resume rallying back to the 1.0300 resistance. 1.0300 is forming as a key resistance to the march higher and the AUD/USD will need to close above the figure to open up higher levels. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0203 and a high of 1.0316 before closing the day at 1.0280 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was stable inside Monday&rsquo s range as the Gold market consolidates. Overall trading with a low of USD$1410 and high of USD $1428 before ending the New York session at USD$1417 an ounce. Oil rallied off support at $103 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed +$0.50 at $104.40 a barrel.

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