Daily outlook – 30th May 2012 (00:30GMT)

May 30, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the dollar extended gains again overnight with strong safe haven demand as the uncertainty and bad news out of Europe continues to roll in. The slow speed at which EU officials are moving to sure up confidence in the market is creating fear amongst the longer term investors. US data is coming in mixed with slightly better housing price data being offset by the weakening CB Consumer sentiment at 64.9 vs. 69.8 previously. Looking ahead, April Pending home Sales forecast at 0.1% vs. 4.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the rejection of the Spanish banking bailout by the EU is creating fresh selling in the Asian session Wednesday with a move to 2 year lows on the EUR/USD under 1.2500 opening up a move to 1.2300. EUR/USD is struggling to rally even on a technical level and there seems to be continued interest to sell even as we move into record short levels.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY is stuck in the recent range bracketed by sell orders above Y80 and buy orders below Y79.50. EUR/JPY is pushing lower and lower below Y100 as the EUR/USD falls apart and we could be targeting 2011 lows near Y97.

The Sterling (GBP) the risk off mood led to Pound selling as well with the cable moving from 1.5700 down to lower 1.5600 levels in the US session. The outlook is for further losses but EUR/GBP selling is supporting. May CBI Trade data was strong at 21 vs. -7 previously. Looking ahead, April UK Mortgage approvals forecast at 50.1 vs. 49.9 previously. Also ahead ECB President Draghi speaks.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is back under 0.9800 as weak data hurts the already damaged technical and sentiment picture. The AUD/USD is under pressure under Y77. UPDATE April Australian Retail Sales falls -0.2% vs. 0.2% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell heavily back to $1550 overnight after failing again near $1580. OIL/USD rejected $92 overnight and we fell back to $90 and it is under pressure in Asia today as well with sentiment continuing to sour.

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