Daily outlook – 31st March 2011 (00:30GMT)

March 31, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The weak USD theme continued with investors searching for riskier trades with higher returns. The High Yielding Aussie hit all time highs as stock markets continue to push higher. March ADP Employment was solid at 201k vs. 203k previously. In US stocks, DJIA +71 points closing at 12350, S&amp P +8 points closing at 1328 and NASDAQ +19 points closing at 2776. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 380k vs. 283k previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped in Europe but reversed once again on strong EUR/JPY buying which tracked stock markets higher in the US Session. Resistance was found at 1.4150 for the second day and the market may wait until Friday US jobs reports for fresh direction. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4051 and a high of 1.4149 before closing the day around 1.4135 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February German Retail Sales are forecast at 0.4% vs. 1.4% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained strong supported by the strong ADP Employment report at 201k vs. 208k previously. Crosses enjoyed solid gains with AUD/JPY year highs above Y85 and EUR/JPY now above Y117 in very one sided moves. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.40 and a high of 83.23 before closing the day around 83.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was able to finally rally on the back of strong data and positive markets. CBI Distributive trades jumped to 15 vs. 6 previously in March. EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8750 but losses was contained and most of the moves were seen on GBP/JPY. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5977 and a high of 1.6086 before closing the day at 1.6080 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Nationwide HPI forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained strong on the back of investor demand for AUD/JPY with the major closing above the key 1.0300 level ahead of Economic data today. The Market is starting to look higher now as traders become more comfortable with levels above parity. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0268 and a high of 1.0339 before closing the day at 1.0330 in the New York session. UPDATE FEBRUARY Building permits -7.4 % vs. 4% forecast. Retail Sales 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) broke higher on USD weakness in Europe but sharply reversed back to support at $1412 in classic pump and dump trader moves in New York. Overall trading with a low of USD$1411 and high of USD $1430 before ending the New York session at USD$1423 an ounce. Eased slightly in quiet trade. WTI Oil Closed -$0.44 at $104.10 a barrel.

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