Daily outlook – 31st May 2011 (00:30GMT)

May 31, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) a largely non eventful day with many markets closed for holidays. Early Asia Tuesday we had reports of a sentiment shift from Germany in regards to helping Greece which saw a sharp spike higher in the EUR/USD. In US stocks, closed given Bank Holiday for Memorial Day. Looking ahead, May CB Consumer Confidence is forecast at 66.5 vs. 65.4.

The Euro (EUR) was under pressure initially on weekend reports of Greece not hitting budget cuts required to receive bailout money. This was reversed sharply on the German sentiment shift reports late in the day that Greece would receive support without restructuring. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4256 and a high of 1.4353 before closing the day around 1.4370 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German May Unemployment change forecast at -30k vs. -37k previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) holiday markets kept the major to a 20 pip range with most of action reserved for crosses with EUR/JPY rallying into the end of the day. The outlook for the USD/JPY is largely dependent on US monetary policy. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.75 and a high of 81.05 before closing the day around 80.90 in the New York session. UPDATE April Industrial Production at 1% vs. -15.5% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) remained subdued but well supported near highs. &nbsp The GBP/USD has broken above resistance in recent days and is threatening to begin an uptrend. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6448 and a high of 1.6510 before closing the day at 1.6480 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated near 1.0700 and is threatening to resume the uptrend with the correction seen over in stock markets. Concerns include China and Greece but if these fail to materialize then a retest of 1.1000 could be seen in coming weeks. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0673 and a high of 1.0730 before closing the day at 1.0700 in the New York session. UPDATE Q1 Current Account at -10.45bn vs. -8bn previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was quiet but edged higher towards $1540. Overall trading with a low of USD$1534 and high of USD $1539 before ending the New York session at USD$1538 an ounce. Tested and found support under $100 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -$0.20 at $100.40 a barrel.

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