Daily Outlook 4th May 2011

May 4, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a rare good day with profit taking on most markets sending the USD higher. The main catalyst was the sharp moves lower in Oil and Silver. Stocks we also mildly down and the safe haven USD and Yen benefitted from this. In US stocks, DJIA -0 points closing at 12807, S&amp P -4 points closing at 1356 and NASDAQ -22 points closing at 2841. Looking ahead, April ADP Employment forecast at 198k vs. 201k previously. April ISM Services forecast at 57.4 vs. 57.3 previously.

The Euro (EUR) found support in Europe after hitting day lows near 1.4750 but the market was unable to hold onto the bounce when US stocks turned south and commodity losses piled up. March PPI increased at 0.7% vs. 0.6% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4755 and a high of 1.4891 before closing the day around 1.4815 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Retail Sales forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke below Y81 but quickly found support as the two safe havens competed for strength yesterday. EUR/JPY moved below Y120 but the market remained close to the level with buyers still lurking. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.68 and a high of 81.26 before closing the day around 80.95 in the New York session. &nbsp

The Sterling (GBP) was very weak after the sharp fall in April Factory PMI to 54.6 vs. 56.7 previously. Cable fell through 1.6500 on the back of this with EUR/GBP pushing above 0.9000. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6463 and a high of 1.6647 before closing the day at 1.6608 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Construction PMI forecast at 55.5 vs. 56.4 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under heavy selling pressure with Silver and Oil pushing the commodity currency lower. The RBA held at 4.75% with the central bank still concerned about inflation but not indicating a rate hike was in the next couple of months. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0835 and a high of 1.0935 before closing the day at 1.0850 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) the profit taking continued with traders selling into bounces. Overall trading with a low of USD$1527 and high of USD $1551 before ending the New York session at USD$1536 an ounce. Oil finally broke support and plummeted lower to $110 support. WTI Oil Closed -$2.47 at $111.05 a barrel.

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