Daily outlook – 7th February 2011 (00:30GMT)

February 7, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was stronger on a surprise sharp drop in the January Unemployment Rate to 9.0% vs. 9.4% previously. The Nonfarm payroll rise was only 36k vs. 145k forecast but this was put down to bad weather in January. In US stocks, DJIA +29 points closing at 12092, S&amp P +3 points closing at 1310 and NASDAQ +15 points closing at 2769. Looking ahead, December Consumer Credit forecast at 2bn vs. 1.35bn.

The Euro (EUR) was under pressure as the largest currency pair expressed the USD strength. The sharp pullback over the last two days has put the rally in question with a break of 1.3500 signally its breakdown. EUR/JPY held up well as stock markets and risk appetite remains strong. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3544 and a high of 1.3678 before closing at 1.3588. Looking ahead, February Sentix Index forecast at 12.5 vs. 10.6.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Broke above Y82 and surged towards Y82.50 resistance before profit taking into the weekend. Crosses were all buoyant as traders look to express risk appetite. USD weakness in recent weeks has being pressuring the USD/JPY but the action has been very contained and Japanese Officials still comment on moves towards Y80. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 81.13 and a high of 82.46 before closing the day around 82.19 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) UK house prices jumped 0.8% in Jan and helped the Pound rally in the European session before reversing on post NFP dollar strength. EUR/GBP is a closely watched cross for general Pound strength and is threatening 0.8400 ahead of this weeks key BOE Interest Rate Decision. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6037 and a high of 1.6172 before closing the day at 1.6095 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested 1.0200 after a strong RBA quarterly update that continued to focus on the mining boom and inflation pressures. The two way price action post NFP was contained with the market giving into USD strength. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0113 and a high of 1.0199 before closing the US session at 1.0138. UPDATE December Retails at 0.2% vs. 0.3% m/m.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) had a subdued session even with the US data releases with a test of $1360 failing before moving back to $1345 support. Overall trading with a low of USD$1360 and high of USD $1345 before ending the New York session at USD$1348 an ounce. Traded in a $3 a barrel range on profit taking and easing Egyptian concerns. WTI Oil Closed -$1.50 at $89.05 a barrel.

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