Traders should exhibit caution if planning on holding positions over the weekend. China PMI manufacturing data is due 11:00am Sunday (AEST) holding strong potential to disturb market sentiment. With the recent increase in stimulus from the People’s Bank of China, expectations are for a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector. Reforms in China’s National People’s Congress Five-year economic plan in March, outlined the need for inefficient state-owned enterprises within the coal and steel sectors to be closed or merged. The country’s bank is considering supportive methods for these enterprises, promoting establishment of new projects in foreign markets and support for enterprises to manage foreign-exchange risks. Concern still remains surrounding the recent commodity rally. With cheap Chinese steel flooding the international market, pressure continues to mount on anti-dumping legislators. Shifts in global attitude towards inexpensive China exports could act as a road block to the recent China recovery.
The DJIA closed down more than 1% for the first time since the 23rd of February, driven by Bank of Japan rate decisions and poor earnings performance in stocks. The BoJ decided to leave rates unchanged with no additional stimulus to be pumped into the economy. Worse than expected US GDP data also contributed to the shift in sentiment with quarterly data coming in 0.2% lower at 0.5%. With shifting sentiment, the sell-off continued in Apple stocks as investors reacted to Billionaire investor Carl Icahns bearish comments on the tech giant’s ability to foster future growth. Apple stocks began to slide earlier this week as quarterly earnings missed analyst expectations closing down over 9% since Tuesday. With increasing saturation in the smart-phone market, Tim Cook’s ability to foster innovation is more important now than ever.
Currency Updates:
Trade EUR/USD Intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 1.1295
Our preference: long positions above 1.1295 with targets @ 1.1380 & 1.1420 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.1295 look for further downside with 1.1270 & 1.1245 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Supports and resistances:
1.1445 **
1.1420 **
1.1380 ***
1.1352 Last
1.1295 ***
1.1270 ***
1.1245 ***
Trade USD/JPY Intraday: watch 107.60.
Pivot: 109.35
Our preference: short positions below 109.35 with targets @ 107.60 & 106.40 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 109.35 look for further upside with 109.90 & 110.65 as targets.
Comment: a break below 107.60 would trigger a drop towards 106.40.
Supports and resistances:
110.65
109.90
109.35
108.14 Last
107.60
106.40
105.00
Trade GBP/USD Intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 1.4520
Our preference: long positions above 1.4520 with targets @ 1.4640 & 1.4670 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.4520 look for further downside with 1.4465 & 1.4410 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Supports and resistances:
1.4700 **
1.4670 **
1.4640 ***
1.4607 Last
1.4520 ***
1.4465 ***
1.4410 ***
AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 0.7685
Our preference: short positions below 0.7685 with targets @ 0.7575 & 0.7545 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 0.7685 look for further upside with 0.7725 & 0.7765 as targets.
Comment: as long as the resistance at 0.7685 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7575 remains high.
Supports and resistances:
0.7765
0.7725
0.7685
0.7625 Last
0.7575
0.7545
0.7495
Trade SPI 200 (ASX) (M6) Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 5233
Our preference: short positions below 5233 with targets @ 5168 & 5145 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 5233 look for further upside with 5270 & 5300 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
Supports and resistances:
5300
5270
5233
5195 Last
5168
5145
5111
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