Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair continued to drift lower in Europe and NY session. Softness in EM markets seemed to be the catalyst for the pair’s slide and got the AUD to test support of 0.9240/30 region. Upcoming events for this week that will influence the AUD are; China manufacturing PMI and the RBA announcement. The RBA may temper any bearish moves though as many expect the bank to cease jawboning over the AUD and possibly present a more upbeat economic outlook.
AUD/USD: For now, bulls still holds the reign’s longer term. Bull hurdles are offering around 0.9300/15 and the 61.8% Fib of 0.9758-0.8660. A break above those levels put the late November high (0.9448) in play.
EUR/USD: The pair slid to a new trend low of 1.3705 on soft Spanish & German CPI data. Short covering started as EUR/JPY rallied, supporting the EUR/USD to a high of 1.3776 but dropped back down to 1.3740-50 area as market awaits for French GDP and EZ CPI. If data comes in poor, we may see 1.3640/70 area tested and a breakthrough would see bears push the pair further.
USD/JPY: The yen was sold far and wide from the London open, as Japan’s FY-end and lack of sustained yen gains. The pair made recent highs, the daily cloud base and Kijun by 102.50 were cleared and was set to be closed above finally. However, offers in 103 areas are still holding, with more touted at the cloud top and the 103.10 Monday placement of the down TL off Jan 10 & March 7 highs. Fresh Nikkei buying is seen as part and parcel of QQE2.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:15 JP Manufacturing PMI Mar 55.50-prev
• 23:50 JP Ind output prelim mm Feb f/c 0.30%, 3.80%-prev
• 23:50 JP IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Feb f/c 1.30%-prev
• 23:50 JP IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Feb -3.20%-prev
• 05:00 JP Housing Starts YY Feb f/c 4.90%, 12.30%-prev
• 23:30 AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge Mar 0.20%-prev
• 00:00 AU HIA New Home Sales m/m Feb 0.5%-prev
• 00:30 AU Private Sector Credit Feb f/c 0.40%, 0.40%-prev
• 00:30 AU Housing Credit Feb 0.60%-prev
• 21:45 NZ Building Consents Feb -8.30%-prev
• 02:00 NZ NBNZ Business Outlook Mar 70.80%-prev
• 02:00 NZ NBNZ Own Activity Mar 58.50%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
