Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Both Europe and NY session tried to pressure the AUD, however, downside were limited after Yellen’s relatively dovish statement and rallied the pair from a low of 0.9217 to 0.9278. Big day today for the AUD as market awaits for Chinese PMI, and RBA afterwards. No change in rates is the forecast however, a hawkish statement may see AUD/USD rally again as market increases bet that the RBA’s next rate move will be up.
AUD/USD: A break above 0.93 will have longer-term bulls eye resistance near 0.9450. Pivot point at 0.9210, with support comes in 0.9180 and 0.9150.
EUR/USD: The EZ CPI came in just below the forecast but market reaction was similar to last Germany’s inflation data. EUR/USD rallied from near 1.3725 towards 1.3805 just as NY walked in but slipped to hourly support near 1.3760/65 as offers were holding firmly around 1.3780-10 area.
USD/JPY: The pair closed above the daily cloud base and Kijun by 102.50 into a break beyond the cloud top, down TL off the Jan 10 high and 50% of the 105.45-100.76 slide, all by 103.10. Weak Japanese IP and soft PMI on the eve of Tuesday’s sales tax hike keeps hope high for BOJ QQE2 soon.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:30 AU AIG Manufacturing Index Mar 48.6-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Idx Q1 f/c 18, 16-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Q1 f/c 13, 14-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx Q1 f/ c 24, 20-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Big non-mf outlook DI Q1 f/c 16, 17-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan All Big Capex Est Q1 f/c 0.20%, 4.60%-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Sm Mf Idx Q1 f/c 4, 1-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI Q1 f/c -3, -1-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Sm Non-Mf Idx Q1 f/c 6, 4-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan Sm non-mf outlook DI Q1 f/c -3, 1-prev
• 23:50 JP Tankan All Sm Capex Est Q1 f/c -12.20%, 7.90%-prev
• 01:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar f/c 50.3, 50.2-prev
• 01:30 JP Overtime Pay Feb f/c -0.20%-prev
• 01:45 CN HSBC Mfg PMI Final Mar 48.1-prev
• 03:30 AU RBA cash rate Apr f/c 2.50%, 2.50%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
